Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
The March 31 local elections, which showed a weakened, albeit still victorious ruling AKP Party, will be followed by a long period without a major vote. Whether this proves to be a boon for the economy or whether the next four years look like the last five, characterised by a polarised socio-political climate and volatile economic growth, hinges on policy choices in the coming months. On balance, we think it unlikely that the authorities will seize the opportunity to reform despite some early market-friendly overtures. Instead, we may see more piecemeal, short-sighted measures, aimed at bringing prosperity, but achieving the opposite. Domestic confidence in the lira will guide changes to our baseline view (which assumes that stimulus policies will be dialled back post-election).
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