Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
The jobs machine revved up in October, with a mix of stronger payrolls, lower unemployment, and stronger wage growth. Labor supply remained an issue, but slowly dissipating Covid concerns and constraints should push up labor force participation as we head into 2022. The Fed delivered on expectations by announcing that QE tapering will start in mid-November. Still, Powell stressed a patient approach to monetary policy tightening, noting "it's not time to raise rates." We don't expect liftoff until December 2022, but we can't dismiss the risk of a policy error whereby supply chain snarls and hot inflation could spark premature rate tightening. Data shows the economy is reaccelerating, supporting our view of healthy 5.2% real GDP advance in Q4 and setting the stage for a solid 2022. Supply-chain constraints will persist next year, but we expect they will gradually ease amidst an improving health situation, consumer spending rotation toward services, and growing production.
- The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the US Weekly Economic Briefing.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- US Weekly Economic Briefings
- Highlights: Briefing on events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon data.
- Credit Crunch Watch:
- Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators, along with discussion of their latest movements. Brief discussion of latest trends in the US and Eurozone economies.
- Detailed charts of the components of the Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators.
- Credit Crunch Timeline: Summary of major economic events since the beginning of the financial crisis.
- Latest Data in Detail: Charts and analysis on the important releases of the previous week, such as: inflation indicators, consumer confidence, retail sales, durable goods orders etc.
- The Week Ahead: Scheduled key data releases for the upcoming week, including information on previous data and forecast data.
- Key Economic Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, output, retail sales, inflation, and trade balance.
- Key Financial Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key financial indicators including: Short and long term interest rates, key exchange rates, money supply, S&P 500, and reserves.