Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
Soft consumer spending data this week underscored consumers’ caution in the face of trade and financial market turbulence. Meanwhile, the combination of elevated trade uncertainty and softer global growth continues to act as a powerful brake on business investment with core durable goods orders momentum remaining firmly in negative territory. We have lowered our Q3 real GDP growth tracker to just 1.3%, from 1.8% previously, following a 2.0% advance in Q2. This downgrade serves as a timely reminder that the US economy will struggle to remain an island of hope amidst depressed global growth, rising trade tensions and cooler employment trends. With risks to the outlook being tilted to the downside, inflation remaining subdued in August, and the administration seemingly considering the imposition of capital controls on portfolio flows to China, we believe the Fed will be pressed to offer another rate cut at the October FOMC meeting.
- The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the US Weekly Economic Briefing.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- US Weekly Economic Briefings
- Highlights: Briefing on events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon data.
- Credit Crunch Watch:
- Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators, along with discussion of their latest movements.
- Brief discussion of latest trends in the US and Eurozone economies.
- Detailed charts of the components of the Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators.
- Credit Crunch Timeline: Summary of major economic events since the beginning of the financial crisis.
- Latest Data in Detail: Charts and analysis on the important releases of the previous week, such as: inflation indicators, consumer confidence, retail sales, durable goods orders etc.
- The Week Ahead: Scheduled key data releases for the upcoming week, including information on previous data and forecast data.
- Key Economic Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, output, retail sales, inflation, and trade balance.
- Key Financial Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key financial indicators including: Short and long term interest rates, key exchange rates, money supply, S&P 500, and reserves.