Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
Trade policy abruptly came into focus this week as Trump changed his tune and raised existing China tariffs on $200 billion of imports from 10% to 25%. If maintained, we estimate that the existing and new tariffs will pose a cumulative 0.3% drag on US GDP by 2020. Importantly, the tariff drag would outweigh the fading fiscal stimulus impulse by the end of the year. A plethora of Fed speak this week confirmed that solid economic momentum and strong labor market performance have anchored the Fed’s ‘patience”. This was further reinforced by tame core CPI inflation in April. In this context, the latest trade war escalation increases the likelihood that the next Fed rate move is a cut.
- The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the US Weekly Economic Briefing.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- US Weekly Economic Briefings
- Highlights: Briefing on events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon data.
- Credit Crunch Watch:
- Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators, along with discussion of their latest movements. Brief discussion of latest trends in the US and Eurozone economies.
- Detailed charts of the components of the Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators.
- Credit Crunch Timeline: Summary of major economic events since the beginning of the financial crisis.
- Latest Data in Detail: Charts and analysis on the important releases of the previous week, such as: inflation indicators, consumer confidence, retail sales, durable goods orders etc.
- The Week Ahead: Scheduled key data releases for the upcoming week, including information on previous data and forecast data.
- Key Economic Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, output, retail sales, inflation, and trade balance.
- Key Financial Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key financial indicators including: Short and long term interest rates, key exchange rates, money supply, S&P 500, and reserves.