Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
While the spooky October may be behind us, markets should grow accustomed to a higher volatility environment amid tightening monetary policy. Despite this week’s solid economic data, positive earnings reports and signs of easing trade tensions with China, investors remain very sensitive to trade strains and upcoming increases in the federal funds rate. The recent batch of solid economic data, including a stellar October employment report, suggest the Fed will maintain a hawkish bias and hike rates one more time this year in December. Looking into 2019, we foresee another three rate increases as Fed Chair Powell looks to “normalize” monetary policy. With the labor market nearing full-employment and GDP momentum likely to peak this year around 3.0%, many commentators have versed into the simplistic “2020 recession” call. While a trifecta of policy headwinds will slow the economy and make it more vulnerable to external risks, we believe the economy still has plenty of fuel left in the tank. We see recession odds around 20% for 2019 and 35% for 2020.
- The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the US Weekly Economic Briefing.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- US Weekly Economic Briefings
- Highlights: Briefing on events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon data.
- Credit Crunch Watch:
- Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators, along with discussion of their latest movements.
- Brief discussion of latest trends in the US and Eurozone economies.
- Detailed charts of the components of the Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators.
- Credit Crunch Timeline: Summary of major economic events since the beginning of the financial crisis.
- Latest Data in Detail: Charts and analysis on the important releases of the previous week, such as: inflation indicators, consumer confidence, retail sales, durable goods orders etc.
- The Week Ahead: Scheduled key data releases for the upcoming week, including information on previous data and forecast data.
- Key Economic Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, output, retail sales, inflation, and trade balance.
- Key Financial Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key financial indicators including: Short and long term interest rates, key exchange rates, money supply, S&P 500, and reserves.