Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe

After consecutive economic contractions in 2019 and 2020, Zimbabwe’s real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 6.3% last year. We forecast economic growth will moderate to 2.6% in 2022. Expectations of weaker demand from key trading partners pose a downside risk to Zimbabwe’s economic outlook, but elevated mineral prices should be supportive of Zimbabwean exports. However, the more pressing concern in coming months will be food insecurity, with ordinary Zimbabweans expected to feel the impact of Russian aggression in Ukraine. One of the world's poorest populations can expect an increase in living costs, and an already tense political environment will become even more tense. The United Nations World Food Programme predicts that Zimbabwe will experience food shortages in 2022, as a result of poor economic performance and sharp price increases across the board. Meanwhile, President Mnangagwa's government blames the economic struggles on sanctions imposed by the West two decades ago.