Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom

We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine to mean energy prices will stay higher for longer, pushing up UK inflation further and weakening growth. The energy price cap will delay some of the pain for consumers and mean the bigger hit to activity comes next year, leading us to cut our 2023 GDP growth forecast by 0.5ppts to 2.1%. The weaker growth outlook and heightened uncertainty mean we now expect two more interest rate hikes this year, rather than three.

UK: Russia-Ukraine war will raise inflation and damage growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade

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