Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
The US economy contracted in Q1 for the first time since the pandemic-driven recession ended, but the domestic economy showed resilience in the face of Omicron, lingering supply constraints, and high inflation. Intensifying headwinds from more aggressive Fed tightening and tighter financial conditions should slow the economy this year without stalling it, but we see increased odds of a hard landing in 2023. Given the weak start to this year, we have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.5%, while our 2023 forecast remains at 2%.
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