Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States

The US economy contracted in Q1 for the first time since the pandemic-driven recession ended, but the domestic economy showed resilience in the face of Omicron, lingering supply constraints, and high inflation. Intensifying headwinds from more aggressive Fed tightening and tighter financial conditions should slow the economy this year without stalling it, but we see increased odds of a hard landing in 2023. Given the weak start to this year, we have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.5%, while our 2023 forecast remains at 2%.

US: Aggressive Fed tightening will slow growth, not stall it
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term forecast
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic Risk Evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy

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