Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States

Recent stress in the banking system and tighter lending standards will result in a more severe, but still mild, recession in H2 2023 than we previously anticipated. Though banking stress has eased, the economic costs will be incurred with a lag, and we expect the largest decline in GDP to occur in H2 after weak growth in Q2. Our business cycle indicator shows the economy lost momentum in February and is close to turning negative. We maintain our GDP growth forecast for the US at 0.9% in 2023 and have cut the outlook for 2024 by 0.2ppts to 0.4%.

US: Banking stress increases the likelihood of a hard landing
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term Forecast
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy

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