Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain

Monthly data shows that the Spanish economy is enduring the energy crisis better than we expected, suggesting it will likely avoid a recession. As a result, we have upgraded our 2023 GDP growth forecast a notch, to 1.1% from 1%. Additionally, an upward revision to national accounts means GDP likely expanded above 5% for a second consecutive year in 2022. But the near-term outlook is challenging, as high inflation, rising interest rates, and a negative external environment will likely lead to sluggish activity over the next few months.