Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway

We have slashed our 2023 GDP forecast for Norway by 1.6ppts to 0.7% and expect the economy to enter a mild recession over the winter. The rise in wholesale electricity prices will push inflation higher for longer, leading to contractions in consumer spending, and a restrictive monetary policy stance will amplify short-term headwinds through higher borrowing costs. But government subsidies for household energy bills, elevated employment, and a consumer savings cushion should prevent a larger hit to GDP. We also nudged down our 2022 GDP forecast 0.1ppts to 2.9%.


Norway: Forecast for 2023 slashed as growth stalls
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and politics

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