Higher inflation and weaker external demand as Europe battles with energy shortages have led us to lower our Norwegian mainland GDP forecasts by 0.6ppts to 2.6% in 2022 and 0.3ppts to 2.3% in 2023. Norway's energy supply remains secure thanks to its hydropower electricity grid, but its integration into regional power exchanges means energy prices will spike this year, squeezing household incomes. GDP downgrades in Norway's major European trading partners and tighter financial conditions will also hit growth, but growth is seen remaining above the average in the decade prior to the pandemic.
Norway: growth outlook becoming more pessimisticForecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookkey drivers of our Short-term ForecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationrisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and Structure of tradePolicy and politics
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