Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati
Higher energy and food prices have led us to raise our inflation forecasts for Kiribati by 1.3ppts to 6% this year and by 0.7ppts to 4.4% in 2023. As a result, we expect the fall in real incomes to weigh on GDP growth and have cut our 2023 forecast by 0.3ppts to 0.9%, followed by a strong recovery in 2024 as commodity prices ease. Chinese development aid to improve tourism infrastructure remains a key upside risk, but growing judicial discontent with this relationship may threaten public confidence.
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