Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy

The Italian GDP was reported to have been flat in Q3, according to the flash estimate. This was slightly above our call of a marginal decrease but still showed that the Italian economy was broadly in stagnation. We believe activity in Italy will remain very subdued in Q4, while we expect a recovery next year, driven by an improvement in real disposable income and better external conditions. As a result, we expect GDP growth of 0.7% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024.

Italy: outlook still subdued despite better-than-expected GDP
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation

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