Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Aruba

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Aruba

We have upgraded our 2024 GDP forecast for Aruba by 0.8ppts to 2.2% y/y growth. This adjustment is driven by the resilience of the US economy, which accounts for over 80% of Aruba's overseas visitors, thereby boosting tourism activity. Arrivals are expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels in both 2023 and 2024. However, weak private investment is likely to constrain growth this year, as the pipeline of public construction projects tapers off following the completion of major projects in 2023. Tourism will continue to be a significant contributor to growth in 2025, with a projected increase of 4.3% as tourism-related construction projects commence and US interest rates moderate.

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