Category: Energy & Resources
Energy & Resources market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
We kept our GDP growth forecast unchanged for this year, at 1.4%, and next, at 2.2%. The main driver this year will be net exports, after a strong start to the year, with domestic demand supporting next year's growth. Fiscal and monetary policies will provide a tailwind for growth, with a fiscal ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
Our GDP forecast for Peru is unchanged for 2025–2026, with the economy expected to grow by 2.8% in 2025, before slowing to 2.4% in 2026. External conditions are less favorable and uncertainty heightened ahead of Presidential elections scheduled for April next year. We anticipate a decline in investm ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
The services sector and non-diamond mining output continue to drive the Namibian economy. Still, these sectors face some headwinds this year as the domestic monetary easing cycle that buoyed services growth concludes and US protectionist measures rattle global trade and commodity markets. Diamond mi ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
US copper prices have surged to record highs as traders redirect material to the US exchange following President Trump's announcement that copper imports will face a 50% tariff from 1 August. Despite the current tightness, the global copper market remains in surplus, and we expect that prices wi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
We’ve nudged up our US GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 1.6% in 2025 and 0.3ppts to 2.1% in 2026 as our July baseline incorporated the One Big Beautiful Bill in its entirety. The July forecast also included a lower unemployment rate for this year because of changes to our projections for immigratio ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We continue to forecast Germany's GDP will grow by 0.2% this year and have raised our projection for 2026 by 0.1ppt to a 1% expansion. We think some household energy tax cuts could trigger a slightly more frontloaded recovery next year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We continue to project the Eurozone's GDP will grow by 1.1% in 2025 and by 0.8% in 2026. But uncertainty is still high, particularly because higher US tariffs remain a possibility. But we also identify some upside risks to an economy still dominated by downside risks. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
The economy gained momentum in early 2025, with growth accelerating to 5.3% y/y in Q1 from 3.6% y/y in Q4 2024. The upturn was broad-based: agriculture rebounded strongly, industry activity expanded, and services growth remained solid. High-frequency data points to continued strength in Q2, with the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
We still forecast the Nigerian economy to expand at a solid clip of 3.4% in 2025, despite potential downside risks arising from external demand shocks and global risk aversion. We base our prediction on sound private sector activity in H1 2025 and solid oil production over the first five months of t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kuwait
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kuwait by 1.8ppts to 4.1% to reflect continuing oil production increases and strong credit expansion. In addition, our prior concerns over downside risks, including fiscal spending cuts and energy shortages, have significantly eased amid the recent bond iss ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iraq
We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.9ppts to 0.3%. The revision primarily reflects base effects from higher-than-expected oil production output in 2024. While the recent Israel-Iran conflict has disrupted regional air travel and may weigh on tourism revenues and supply chain ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Libya's oil production rose steadily to 1.38 million bpd in April 2025, signalling a recovery despite ongoing political tensions that threaten production stability. Lower inflation and resilient oil production support a cautiously optimistic medium-term outlook, with real GDP forecast to expand ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industrial data from the first few months of the year have been relatively strongly, with March in particular exhibiting a quite strong uptick in production. However, we attribute much of this uptick to US firms attempting to front-run tariffs by bringing forward orders, indicating that it is not a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
India's economic growth momentum remained solid at the start of 2025. Real GDP rose 7.4% y/y in Q1, bringing growth for the fiscal year 2024/2025 to 6.5%. We expect momentum to soften in Q2 and Q3 and forecast a 6.5% GDP expansion in 2025, followed by 6.6% growth in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Oman by 0.1ppt to 2.1% for this year and by 0.2ppts to 2.2% for 2026 to account for the adverse effect of US tariffs announced in April on global demand. The oil price drop triggered by the faster unwinding of oil supply cuts by OPEC+ and energy demand conc ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
Our GDP growth upgrade for 2025 to 2.6% doesn't reflect stronger growth prospects for Estonia this year but rather that the economy had more momentum at the end of 2024 than data had previously suggested. We don't expect the trade war launched by the US to directly impact Estonia's growt ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We have lowered our GDP growth forecast Croatia to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Despite minimal direct trade exposure to the US, the trade-reliant economy is vulnerable to weaker global demand as US President Donald Trump's trade war escalates. But Croatia should remain one of the fastest-grow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Declining global iron ore prices, slower mining production, weak governance and high inflation weakened Sierra Leone's economic growth in 2024. Furthermore, weak domestic demand and threats to global trade activity are key short-term risks. The country's agricultural sector also remains expo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Despite the closed Beninese-Nigerien border, Niger continues to transport oil to international markets. On February 24 this year, the government said it had successfully shipped 14.1 million barrels of oil through the 2,000-km pipeline that connects the Agadem oilfield in Niger with the Beninese Por ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
We forecast UAE GDP growth at 4.7% in 2025, supported by the expected easing of OPEC+ production cuts from May. Non-oil momentum remains positive but is softening, with the March PMI slipping to 54 from 55. Rising cost pressures, weaker global demand, and increased uncertainty arising from the US ta ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 0.6% next. Trade uncertainty will make businesses reluctant to invest. Not only will tariffs lower the Netherlands' direct exports to the US by making them dearer, but they will also hit demand for Dutch-produced inputs into other cou ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We've lowered our Eurozone GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 0.8% in 2025 and 0.2ppts to 1% in 2026 in response to the US tariff hikes. Although our assumptions about US-EU tariffs have not materially changed, new US tariffs will weaken demand for Eurozone exports and will result in a prolonged ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Global volatility and uncertainty have heightened, and oil producers will likely be worse off. International capital and commodity markets were shaken when US President Donald Trump announced extremely severe reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Algerian companies were poised to pay a 30% tariff on goods ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We left our near-term forecasts unchanged this month at 0% GDP growth for this year and 0.9% in 2026, with inflation at 2.1% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. This stability reflects the positive effects of the initial impact from Germany's fiscal sea change offset by the weaker and more uncertain globa ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We have kept our GDP growth forecast for Peru unchanged at 2.6% for 2025 but cut our projection for 2026 by 0.3ppts to 2.6%. Still, we recognise downside risks to our outlook. On the domestic front, renewed social unrest triggered by rising insecurity led to strikes in the capital city during April. ... Read More
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