Category: Heavy Industry
Heavy Industry market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We've slightly adjusted our Eurozone forecasts and now project GDP will grow by 0.9% in both 2025 and 2026. Our assumptions about US-EU tariffs have not changed since last month and recent data continue to signal a slow but steady expansion. The balance of risks tilts to the downside as the assu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Oman by 0.1ppt to 2.1% for this year and by 0.2ppts to 2.2% for 2026 to account for the adverse effect of US tariffs announced in April on global demand. The oil price drop triggered by the faster unwinding of oil supply cuts by OPEC+ and energy demand conc ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
Our GDP growth forecast for 2025-2026 remains unchanged, with growth expected at 2.6%. Despite rising global outlook concerns, Peru’s growth prospects remain the strongest in the region, supported by flexible financial conditions, rising real wages, and a stout labor market. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We left our near-term forecasts largely unchanged this month at 0% GDP growth for this year and 0.9% for 2026, with inflation at 2.2% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. This stability reflects that GDP grew by the expected 0.2% q/q in Q1, that our tariff assumptions haven't changed, and that the new Germ ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
We've slightly increased our GDP growth forecasts for the US by 0.1ppt to 1.3% in 2025 and to 1.7% in 2026. The economy will still grow noticeably below its potential growth rate as it digests tariffs, supply-chain stress, tighter financial market conditions, and surging policy uncertainty. Rece ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Germany's industrial production rebounded strongly in March, making quarterly growth positive for the first time in two years. The fact that growth was broad-based is good news. But as this largely reflects the front-loading of purchases in the US ahead of the tariffs, with particularly strong r ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Events over the past month prompted us to cut our 2025 real GDP growth forecast by 0.3 ppt to 4.3% while keeping our 2026 estimate steady at 4.7%. Despite Ghana’s limited direct trade exposure to the US, the broader global uncertainty is expected to mildly dampen domestic activity by curbing trade f ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Global oil prices have come under renewed pressure following the recent decision by Opec+ to accelerate oil output increases in June. We think bearish conditions will persist and oil prices should recover gradually over the medium term. We maintain our view that Nigeria's overall real GDP growth ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
Our GDP growth upgrade for 2025 to 2.6% doesn't reflect stronger growth prospects for Estonia this year but rather that the economy had more momentum at the end of 2024 than data had previously suggested. We don't expect the trade war launched by the US to directly impact Estonia's growt ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Eurozone GDP rose 0.4% q/q in Q1, beating our and consensus expectations for unchanged growth of around 0.2% q/q. Initial country-level figures also pointed to a broad-based expansion, but the report exaggerates both the extent of the improvement in Q1 and actual growth itself. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
We downgraded our 2025 growth forecast to 0.7% y/y after last week's Q1 GDP numbers, though this will only be reflected in May's base release. Economic activity was weak, at -0.1% y/y and -0.2% q/q sa, dragged down by exports and investment. We expect both to remain weak for the rest of 2025 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We have lowered our GDP growth forecast Croatia to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Despite minimal direct trade exposure to the US, the trade-reliant economy is vulnerable to weaker global demand as US President Donald Trump's trade war escalates. But Croatia should remain one of the fastest-grow ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Policy announcements in the US continue to dictate economic sentiment in Europe. News this week has been mildly encouraging, with the White House's softer stance leading to large gains in stock markets. Moreover, economic indicators don't yet reflect a large hit from the tariff threat. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Declining global iron ore prices, slower mining production, weak governance and high inflation weakened Sierra Leone's economic growth in 2024. Furthermore, weak domestic demand and threats to global trade activity are key short-term risks. The country's agricultural sector also remains expo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Despite the closed Beninese-Nigerien border, Niger continues to transport oil to international markets. On February 24 this year, the government said it had successfully shipped 14.1 million barrels of oil through the 2,000-km pipeline that connects the Agadem oilfield in Niger with the Beninese Por ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
We forecast UAE GDP growth at 4.7% in 2025, supported by the expected easing of OPEC+ production cuts from May. Non-oil momentum remains positive but is softening, with the March PMI slipping to 54 from 55. Rising cost pressures, weaker global demand, and increased uncertainty arising from the US ta ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 0.6% next. Trade uncertainty will make businesses reluctant to invest. Not only will tariffs lower the Netherlands' direct exports to the US by making them dearer, but they will also hit demand for Dutch-produced inputs into other cou ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We've lowered our Eurozone GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 0.8% in 2025 and 0.2ppts to 1% in 2026 in response to the US tariff hikes. Although our assumptions about US-EU tariffs have not materially changed, new US tariffs will weaken demand for Eurozone exports and will result in a prolonged ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Global volatility and uncertainty have heightened, and oil producers will likely be worse off. International capital and commodity markets were shaken when US President Donald Trump announced extremely severe reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Algerian companies were poised to pay a 30% tariff on goods ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
We have downgraded our Brent oil price forecast to average $67.50pb this year. Earlier this month Brent fell to $65pb, its lowest level since 2021, as the United States’ announcement of reciprocal tariffs dampened the outlook for global demand, triggering a sell-off in oil markets. An OPEC+ announce ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
The flurry of recent tariff announcements and reversals from the US has continued to affect leading indicators in the Eurozone, with the ZEW sinking this week at a rate consistent with large crises. Together with abysmal soft data from the US, this highlights the corrosive impact of policy uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We left our near-term forecasts unchanged this month at 0% GDP growth for this year and 0.9% in 2026, with inflation at 2.1% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. This stability reflects the positive effects of the initial impact from Germany's fiscal sea change offset by the weaker and more uncertain globa ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We have kept our GDP growth forecast for Peru unchanged at 2.6% for 2025 but cut our projection for 2026 by 0.3ppts to 2.6%. Still, we recognise downside risks to our outlook. On the domestic front, renewed social unrest triggered by rising insecurity led to strikes in the capital city during April. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
We’ve lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the US by 0.8ppts to 1.2%. However, this paints a brighter picture of how the economy will fare this year because this figure is flattered by a favorable base effect. We forecast average annualized GDP growth this year will be 0.5%, leaving the economy ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
High frequency indicators for Q1 suggest India's growth momentum softened at the start of 2025 after some recovery in Q4 2024. We expect activity to slow further in the coming quarters and have revised our GDP growth forecast to 6.5% in 2025, down from 6.7% previously, and 6.6% in 2026, down fro ... Read More
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