Category: Heavy Industry
Heavy Industry market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Libya's oil output reached a decade-high of 1.31 million bpd in December 2024. That said, international oil prices are projected to be relatively flat over the next three years, leaving the government with limited growth prospects for oil-related revenues. However, the country has attracted inte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon
We’ve become more optimistic that Lebanon's economy will return to expansion this year and have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 1.4%. The election of Joseph Aoun as the new president in January and the formation of a new government after nearly three years under an interim admi ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - South Korea
South Korean industrial growth is forecast to grow 2% this year. The electronics and high-tech sector will be the principal driver of industrial growth, underscored by a strong export market for Korean electronics. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - France
While the overall trend of industrial production has remained relatively flat since the initial recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, we expect this year to see a broad decline in industrial output this year. GDP growth forecast has also been lowered to 0.5% for 2025 as global trade uncertainty weigh ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Germany's parliament passed a massive fiscal package last week. We'll revise our March baseline views to reflect the extra spending on defence and infrastructure in our April forecast round. Upward revisions could see GDP growth peak at 2.6% in 2027 and average 1.8% over the next four years, ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Canada
We now expect industrial value-added output in Canada to contract by 1.5% in 2025. The US-Canada trade war is likely to plunge Canada’s economy into a deep recession that will continue into 2026. We expect a 25% tariff on nearly all imports of goods from Canada to take effect in April. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
We have made substantial downgrades to our forecast for German industry and now expect a significantly slower pace of growth over the next 2 years. A cyclical component—weak domestic demand—is an important factor that has pushed back the recovery. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
In a historic move, both houses of the German parliament voted in favour of reforming the country's constitutional debt brake and enacting a large fiscal stimulus. It's hard to overstate its significance. A long-running problem in the Eurozone has been insufficient demand with only Germany h ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
We've nudged down our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.3ppts to 1.3% y/y. High-frequency indicators haven't bounced back as much as we had expected after the earlier Lunar New Year season. By component, we mainly revised real exports and investment downward. We expect Q1 growth ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Motor Vehicles
Global automotive sector growth is forecast at 0.6% this year. Europe will be the principal source of drag in global production amid ongoing regional industrial and consumer demand weakness. ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Aerospace
We have revised our global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.6%, reflecting heightened uncertainty stemming from ongoing trade tensions. These challenges are placing additional strain on the globally integrated supply chain. However, increased defence spending—driven by Trump's push for NATO countri ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Chemicals
Our global outlook for the sector remains positive as we expect production to expand 2.7% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. Gas prices are stabilising and destocking has run its course which is easing pressure off producers. However, we expect trade frictions from Trump's tariffs to weigh on the sector ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Basic Metals
We have revised up our basic metals production forecast for 2025 to 3.7% growth. However, this is due to China’s Q4 data coming in significantly higher than expected. This revision masks our more bearish outlook on basic metals since the last forecast release amid the escalation in tariffs. China’s ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
We forecast India's real GDP will grow by 6.7% in 2025, the same pace as 2024. In fiscal year terms, we expect 6.6% growth in FY2025/2026 (starting in April). After a weak third quarter, India's economic growth rebounded in Q4 2024. Real GDP rose 6.2% y/y, up from an upwardly revised 5.6% in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
We have increased our GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 2.2% for 2025 and from 2.8% to 3.1% for 2026. This revision is mainly due to base effects. Data indicate the 2024 contraction (-1.9% y/y) was more severe than expected, largely because of the energy crisis. Net trade will bolster growth during H ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.3% this year, and 0.8% next. The impact of tight monetary policy is set to unwind, while strong wage growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will constrain growth. We expect infl ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
This month Brent fell to a three-year low below $70pb following OPEC's confirmation that it will begin unwinding cuts in Q2. The move adds downward pressure to prices in an already bearish environment as softer global economic growth prospects are weighing on oil demand. We have downgraded our o ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
We've increased our GDP growth forecasts for Sweden by 0.1ppt to 2.3% in 2025 and by 0.3ppts over the medium term. This is because of expected higher defence spending in Sweden, which will increase to 3% of GDP by 2030 from 2.4% currently, and in Europe, which will benefit Sweden's large def ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Strong Sentix results suggest investors support European and German plans to increase defence and infrastructure spending significantly. Germany's fiscal 'bazooka' needs a deal with the Greens to pass a key vote. We think that can still be reached, but it will require quick progress. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the US by 0.4ppts to 2% to reflect the weaker start to the year, adjustments to our tariff assumptions, and the relentless policy uncertainty. We raised our forecast for the unemployment rate due to the large reduction in federal employment. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We continue to expect the Eurozone's GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. However, we have adjusted our assumption on EU military spending, which we think will gradually increase to 3% of GDP by end of the decade. This prompted us to raise our GDP projections slightly from next year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We have kept our GDP growth forecast for Peru unchanged at 2.6% for 2025, down 0.7ppts from last year. Private consumption will continue to be the main driver, supported by low inflation, flexible financial conditions, and a stable labor market. However, we expect net trade to drag on the economy, g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
The Kenyan government has raised its projected expenditure for the 2024/25 fiscal year (FY, July to June) to KSh3.98trn, underscoring ongoing difficulties in managing its public finances. Following the withdrawal of the 2024 Finance Bill, government spending was initially trimmed by 2.8% to KSh3.88t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Nigeria’s fortunes appear to be turning around. In the final quarter of 2024, seasonally adjusted real GDP growth reached 4.4% y/y, the highest growth rate since Q3 2021 (4.5% y/y). The non-oil economy drove the national growth increase, while the oil sector expanded at a slower pace. We remain caut ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Two events this week could result in a significant shift in Europe's fiscal policy. First, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday announced the 'ReArm Europe' plan, aimed at increasing EU security spending. Second, the two German parties that will very likely form ... Read More
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