Category: Energy
Energy market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Libya's oil output reached a decade-high of 1.31 million bpd in December 2024. That said, international oil prices are projected to be relatively flat over the next three years, leaving the government with limited growth prospects for oil-related revenues. However, the country has attracted inte ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
We have made substantial downgrades to our forecast for German industry and now expect a significantly slower pace of growth over the next 2 years. A cyclical component—weak domestic demand—is an important factor that has pushed back the recovery. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Germany's parliament passed a massive fiscal package last week. We'll revise our March baseline views to reflect the extra spending on defence and infrastructure in our April forecast round. Upward revisions could see GDP growth peak at 2.6% in 2027 and average 1.8% over the next four years, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
We forecast India's real GDP will grow by 6.7% in 2025, the same pace as 2024. In fiscal year terms, we expect 6.6% growth in FY2025/2026 (starting in April). After a weak third quarter, India's economic growth rebounded in Q4 2024. Real GDP rose 6.2% y/y, up from an upwardly revised 5.6% in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
We have increased our GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 2.2% for 2025 and from 2.8% to 3.1% for 2026. This revision is mainly due to base effects. Data indicate the 2024 contraction (-1.9% y/y) was more severe than expected, largely because of the energy crisis. Net trade will bolster growth during H ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.3% this year, and 0.8% next. The impact of tight monetary policy is set to unwind, while strong wage growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will constrain growth. We expect infl ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
This month Brent fell to a three-year low below $70pb following OPEC's confirmation that it will begin unwinding cuts in Q2. The move adds downward pressure to prices in an already bearish environment as softer global economic growth prospects are weighing on oil demand. We have downgraded our o ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
We've increased our GDP growth forecasts for Sweden by 0.1ppt to 2.3% in 2025 and by 0.3ppts over the medium term. This is because of expected higher defence spending in Sweden, which will increase to 3% of GDP by 2030 from 2.4% currently, and in Europe, which will benefit Sweden's large def ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We continue to expect the Eurozone's GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. However, we have adjusted our assumption on EU military spending, which we think will gradually increase to 3% of GDP by end of the decade. This prompted us to raise our GDP projections slightly from next year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
The Kenyan government has raised its projected expenditure for the 2024/25 fiscal year (FY, July to June) to KSh3.98trn, underscoring ongoing difficulties in managing its public finances. Following the withdrawal of the 2024 Finance Bill, government spending was initially trimmed by 2.8% to KSh3.88t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Nigeria’s fortunes appear to be turning around. In the final quarter of 2024, seasonally adjusted real GDP growth reached 4.4% y/y, the highest growth rate since Q3 2021 (4.5% y/y). The non-oil economy drove the national growth increase, while the oil sector expanded at a slower pace. We remain caut ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s new finance minister, Cassiel Ato Forson, will present the 2025 Budget to Parliament on March 11. This will mark the first full-year budget under the new Mahama administration, following a GHȼ68bn provisional budget approved in January for first-quarter government spending. In February, an I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 4.7%, driven entirely by the latest OPEC+ agreement to gradually unwind production cuts starting in Q2. Although oil prices remain under pressure, the increase in production will support growth in the oil sector, particularly as the UAE continue ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
After a poor performance in the first half of last year, Botswana’s diamond industry continued to disappoint in Q3 2024, declining by 14.8% q/q. Although De Beers' latest production report indicates that Botswana’s diamond output rose in the final quarter of 2024, the production guidance for 202 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We forecast Oman's GDP growth at 2.2% for this year, higher than the 1.5% estimate for 2024. In our 2025 growth outlook, we balance the delayed return to growth in the energy sector with a steady expansion of non-energy output, which we project at 3.0% (up from 2.8% previously). We think activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Croatia 0.8ppts to 2.6%. Sizeable historical revisions suggest that the economy was aggressively destocking last year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
We are cautiously optimistic that Nigeria will enjoy a more favourable macroeconomic climate this year. Real GDP growth is projected to increase marginally to 3.1% this year from an estimated 3.0% in 2024 while remaining relatively flat over the medium term. The non-oil economy will be a growth driv ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s economy delivered a strong performance over the first three quarters of last year, expanding by 6.3% on a cumulative basis. Rising gold and oil production bolstered industrial activity over this period, while the ICT and financial sectors ensured robust growth in the services sector. The agr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
We forecast GDP growth for Estonia at 2.5% for 2025. We see signs of a recovery this year, but without a swift domestic turnaround it will be weak initially. Estonia's GDP growth was positive again in Q3 2024, but was close to stagnation at 0.03%. This lack of momentum bodes poorly for growth pr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've maintained our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran at 3.0%. However, we've cut the forecast for FY2025 to 2.3% from 2.5% previously, reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic demand as a result of the newly announced FY2025 budget ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.0%, to reflect another extension by OPEC+ of voluntary oil production cuts. The cartel has announced it will delay unwinding cuts until at least the end of Q1, due to concerns over weak demand. We ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana We have cut our GDP growth forecasts for Guyana by 2.7ppts to 22.5% in 2025 and by 2.9ppts to 14.2% in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We forecast Turkmenistan's GDP growth will pick up to 4.1% in 2025, an improvement from recent years. Stabilising natural gas prices and stronger-than-expected population growth will be the main growth drivers next year as the economy strengthens from several years of ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We upgraded our 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. ... Read More
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