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Cars and Commercial Vehicles - UK - june 2016

Cars and Commercial Vehicles - UK - June 2016

“The British automotive industry continues its somewhat unexpected revival following the 2008 economic crisis, aided in no small part by extensive foreign investment, rising foreign demand and the growing appeal of British-made vehicles, which have exploited their rich heritage, coming to represent a hallmark of tradition and excellence in the global arena.”

Marco Amasanti, B2B Analyst

This report answers the following questions:

What strategy have market leaders adopted in recent years to drive recent growth?
How have foreign investors contributed to this recent expansion?
What impact has the 2015 Volkswagen Emissions Scandal had in the automotive marketplace, and what effect is this expected to have moving forward?
How has the surge of online shopping shaped activity in the market?
What are the implications of the UK withdrawing from the EU?


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market size
Figure 1: Total motor vehicle production, 2011-15, (units)
Figure 2: Total motor vehicle registrations, by volume, 2011-15, (units)
Market trends
Environmental concerns at the forefront of the market and wider manufacturing operations
Figure 3: Ultra low emissions commercial vehicles registered for the first time, 2010-15, (units)
Returning customer and business expenditure has driven recent market expansion
The surge of connected technology is set to dramatically change the haulage industry
The Emissions Scandal
Forecast
Figure 4: Production forecasts, 2016-20, (millions)
Figure 5: Registration forecasts, 2016-20, (millions)
Increasingly pragmatic approach to car ownership
Consolidation of e-commerce
What we think
KEY INSIGHTS
What impact has the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal had on the cars and commercial vehicles market, both immediate and more long term?
What was the significance of foreign investment in the British automotive industry's revival?
INTRODUCTION
Issues in the market
Definitions
Methodology
Abbreviations
Market positioning
UK ECONOMY
Key points
Overview
Independent forecasts are tending to 2.5% GDP growth in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016
Figure 6: UK GDP quarterly development, 2005-15, (£ billion)
Figure 7: Quarters after GDP peak, 1979, 1990 and 2008, (number of quarters and GDP as % of pre-downturn peak)
Inflation
Interest rates
House prices
Consumer spending
Manufacturing
Figure 8: UK output, by industry, 2008-15, (index: Q1 2008 = 100)
Business investment
Figure 9: UK GFCF 2005-15, (£ million)
Imports
Exports
MARKET FACTORS AND TRENDS
Key points
Drive for sustainability
Figure 10: CO2 emissions, by sector, 2014, (% of total CO2 emissions)
Figure 11: Ultra low emissions commercial vehicles registered for the first time, 2010-15, (000)
Economic recovery
Figure 12: Total market vehicle registrations, by volume, and GDP growth, %, 2006-15 (units)
Driverless lorries
Figure 14: UK production of connected cars forecast, 2015-30, (%)
The Emissions Scandal
MARKET SIZE
Key points
Figure 16: Total motor vehicle registrations, by volume, 2006-15, (units)
Figure 17: UK motor vehicles in use, 2011-15, (000)
Figure 18: UK motor vehicles in use, 2011-15, (000)
Figure 19: Total motor vehicle production, 2011-15, (units and % total annual change)
Figure 20: Total motor vehicle production, 2011-15, (% total annual change)
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Key points
Passenger cars
Figure 21: Passenger cars licensed, by keepership, 2011-15, (000)
Figure 22: Passenger cars licensed, by keepership, 2011-15, (000)
Figure 23: Car models, largest five, by UK production volume, 2014, (units)
Figure 24: Car models, largest five, by UK production volume, 2014, (units)
Commercial vehicles
Figure 25: Commercial vehicle production, 2014 and 2015, (units and % share)
Figure 26: Commercial vehicle production, 2014 and 2015, (units and % share)
Figure 27: Commercial vehicle registration, 2011-15, (000)
Figure 28: Commercial vehicle registration, 2011-15, (000)
Figure 29: Commercial vehicle manufacturing, largest five, by brand, 2014, (volume)
Figure 30: Commercial vehicle manufacturing, largest five, by brand, 2014, (volume)
Regional analysis of the British automotive industry
Figure 31: Number of enterprises engaged in the manufacture of motor vehicles, by region, 2014 and 2015, (units)
Figure 32: Number of enterprises engaged in the sale of new cars and light motor vehicles, by region, 2014 and 2015, (units)
GLOBAL MARKET
Key points
Figure 33: Global automotive production statistics, 2015, (in units)
Figure 34: Global automotive production statistics, 2015, (in units)
The pivotal importance of EU membership
Figure 35: Global trade car manufacturing and exports, 2014 and 2015, (in units and % annual change)
Figure 36: Global trade car manufacturing, 2014 and 2015, by brand, (in units and % annual change)
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Key points
Industry development
Merger & acquisition activity
Changes in the structure of the industry
Figure 37: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the manufacture of motor vehicles industry, 2011-15, (number of outlets and businesses)
Figure 38: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the sale of new and used cars and light motor vehicles industry, 2011-15, (Number of outlets and businesses)
Structure by employment
Figure 39: Analysis of the employment structure of the manufacture of motor vehicles industry, 2014 and 2015, (number of employees and outlets)
Figure 40: Analysis of the employment structure of the sale of new and used cars and light vehicles industry, 2014 and 2015, (number of employees and outlets)
Structure by turnover
Figure 41: Analysis of the financial structure of the manufacture of motor vehicles industry, 2014 and 2015, (£000 and number of businesses)
Figure 42: Analysis of the financial structure of the sale of new and used cars and light motor vehicles industry, 2014 and 2015, (£000 and number of businesses)
COMPANY PROFILES
DAIMLER UK LTD
Figure 43: Financial analysis of Daimler Group, 2011-15, (€ million)
Company strategy
FORD MOTOR CO LTD
Figure 44: Financial analysis of Ford Motor Co Ltd, 2010-14, (£ million)
GENERAL MOTORS UK LTD
Figure 45: Financial analysis of General Motors UK Ltd, 2010-14, (£ million)
PEUGEOT MOTOR COMPANY LTD
Figure 46: Financial analysis of Peugeot Motor Company Ltd, 2010-14, (£ million)
VOLKSWAGEN GROUP UK LTD
Figure 47: Financial analysis of Volkswagen Group UK Ltd, 2010-14, (£ million)
VOLVO GROUP UK LTD
Figure 48: Financial analysis of Volvo Group UK Ltd, 2010-14, (£ million)
FORECAST
Key points
Increasingly pragmatic approach to car ownership
Uncertainty around Brexit
Figure 49: UK forecast motor vehicle registrations, 2016-20, (million units)
Figure 50: UK forecast motor vehicle registrations, 2016-20, (million units)
Figure 51: UK forecast motor vehicle production, 2016-20, (million units)
Consolidation of e-commerce and its knock on effect on the commercial vehicle sector
Trade associations
British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association (BVRLA)
Confederation of Passenger Transport UK (CPT)
European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA)
Freight Transport Association (FTA)
The National Franchised Dealers Association
Retail Motor Industry Federation (RMI)
Road Haulage Association (RHA)
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)
Trade magazines
Auto Trader
Commercial Vehicle Dealer
FACTS Magazine
Motor Trader Magazine
Van User
Trucking Magazine
Trade exhibitions
Automechanika Birmingham
The Commercial Vehicle Show
Multimodal
Tip-ex and Tank-ex
UK B2B
Trade research
Informal
Formal
Desk research
Consumer research
Sampling and weighting
Definitions
Qualitative Research
Further Analysis
Statistical forecasting

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