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Future Technology for Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars 2015-2025

Future Technology for Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars 2015-2025

E-cars are oversupplied and changing in all respects but in this frenzy of birth and death the future is being created with hybrid cars rapidly gaining market share now and sale of pure electric cars likely to take off in the second half of the coming decade as certain technical and cost challenges are resolved. Toyota and Tesla have hugely benefitted from correct market positioning but now Toyota is betting strongly on fuel cell hybrids and Tesla on mainstream pure electric cars - both graveyards for many companies in the past. A vicious shakeout of car and battery manufacturers has commenced with the winners expecting riches beyond the dreams of avarice.

IDTechEx finds that the global sale of hybrid and pure electric cars will triple to $178.9 billion in 2024 as they are transformed in most respects. For example, components are becoming integrated, the range extender as an optional extra breaks down the difference between pure electric and hybrid and car manufacturers vertically integrate and collaborate, competing with their suppliers.

This report covers hybrid vs pure electric cars, premium vs mainstream, homologated vs car-like vehicles. The changing components from power electronics to new motors and supercapacitors are examined including game changers such as structural components. Many interviews are woven into the text as appropriate, with the outcome being forecasts 2014-2024 for number, cost and market value of the different types of car and technology roadmaps.

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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. The market for electric cars
1.1.1. Definitions
1.1.2. Cars as part of the big picture
1.1.3. Further details of e-car trends
1.1.4. League table of top 13 electric vehicle companies
1.1.5. Awkward tipping point
1.1.6. Forecasting challenges
1.2. Forecasts 2014-2025
1.2.1. On-road cars
1.2.2. Geographical demand
1.2.3. US market in 2014
1.2.4. Europe and Japan
1.2.5. China
1.2.6. Successful strategies
1.2.7. Plug-in market dynamics
1.2.8. Security of forecasts
1.2.9. New models as lead indicator
1.2.10. MicroEVs/quadricycles etc
1.2.11. Golf cars will have no growth
1.2.12. Profitability
1.2.13. Why there will be a tipping point for pure electric cars
1.3. Disruptive change and merging of all parts
1.4. Range extenders including fuel cells
1.5. Batteries
1.6. Electric motors
1.7. Power electronics
1.7.1. Increased performance and complexity
1.7.2. Wide band gap semiconductors
1.8. Supercapacitors: more than meets the eye
1.8.1. Across batteries in cars
1.8.2. Completely replacing batteries in hybrid cars
1.8.3. Indian supercapacitor sports car
1.8.4. Across fuel cells in cars
1.9. Plugging in: when, where, why?
1.10. Progress of Toyota and Tesla
1.10.1. Market and technology priorities
1.10.2. Toyota simplifies priorities and Tesla lands Gigafactory partnership
1.11. Fuel cell cars: caution needed
1.12. Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles
1.13. Electric vehicle end game: free non-stop road travel
1.14. News in 2016
1.14.1. Electra Meccanica SOLO in full production July 2016
1.14.2. Apple
1.14.3. Feature - Interview with GLM Japan in 2016
1.14.4. Example of new car powertrains: Peugeot Citroen May 2016
1.14.5. Honda goes electric
1.14.6. Ford Plug-in Vehicle Behavior
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out
2.2. Danger signs
2.3. Government support
2.4. Rapid increase in number of manufacturers
2.5. Can the grid cope?
2.6. Changing mobility needs - urban mobility
2.7. Fuel cell mobility
2.8. How green are fuel cell cars really?
2.9. Regional trends
2.10. Fuel cells
2.11. Gigafactory
2.12. New forms of collaborative consumption - car sharing or car clubs
2.13. Narrow Vehicles
2.14. Conventional car with 48 V electric torque assist
3. PURE ELECTRIC CARS
3.1. Consumer attitudes to electric vehicles
3.2. The car powertrain as a portfolio of technologies
3.3. Evolution of the value chain structure - the opportunity window
3.4. Manufacturing
3.5. The arguments against
3.6. Déjà vu
3.7. Golf EVs
3.8. Energy positive solar car
4. HYBRID CARS OVERVIEW
4.1. Construction and advantages of hybrids
4.2. Evolution
4.3. Market drivers
4.3.1. Leading indicators
4.4. Interesting new technology in recent concept cars
4.4.1. Subaru's Viziv 2 Concept
4.4.2. Toyota Supercapacitor Yaris
4.5. Examples of 2015 hybrid car launches
5. HYBRID CAR MODES AND TECHNOLOGY
5.1. Series vs parallel hybrid
5.2. Modes of operation of hybrids
5.2.1. Plug in hybrids
5.2.2. Charge-depleting mode
5.2.3. Blended mode
5.2.4. Charge-sustaining mode
5.2.5. Mixed mode
5.3. Microhybrid is a misnomer
5.4. Deep hybridisation
5.5. Hybrid vehicle price premium
5.6. Battery cost and performance are key
5.7. Tradeoff of energy storage technologies
5.8. Advantages and disadvantages
5.9. Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
5.10. Supercabatteries: lithium-ion capacitors
5.11. What is a range extender?
5.12. What will be required of a range extender?
5.13. Three generations of range extender
5.13.1. First generation range extender technology
5.13.2. Second generation range extender technology
5.13.3. Third generation range extender technology
5.14. Energy harvesting
5.15. Trend to high voltage
5.16. Trend to distributed components
5.17. Trend to flatness then smart skin
6. 143 LITHIUM BATTERY MANUFACTURERS COMPARED
7. KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR CARS
7.1. Three key enabling technologies become six
7.2. Many new forms of range extender
7.3. Supercapacitors
7.4. Energy harvesting
7.5. Power electronics
7.6. Printed and laminar electronics
7.7. Lightweight design
7.8. Structural components and smart skin
7.9. Innovative charging
7.10. Military land vehicles and in-wheel motors
7.11. Third generation traction batteries
7.12. Tesla's battery coup - winners and losers
7.12.1. The theory says no
7.12.2. IDTechEx analysis
7.12.3. Enormity
7.12.4. Winners and losers
7.12.5. Infrastructure needs reduce
7.12.6. IDTechEx forecasts more cautious
7.12.7. Blood bath
7.12.8. Territorial implication
7.12.9. China and Korea
8. FUEL CELL CARS FCEV
8.1. Overview
8.2. Current status and potential
8.3. History/development of the technology
8.4. Mass market
8.5. Fuel cell vs. other powertrains
8.6. Hydrogen infrastructure
8.6.1. Toyota, Nissan and Honda to jointly support hydrogen station infrastructure development
8.7. Value proposition
8.8. Standards
8.9. Necessary investment
8.10. Improvement of the legislation in North America and Europe for hydrogen vehicles
8.10.1. USA
8.10.2. EU
8.11. R&D, initiatives and demonstration projects, H2 infrastructure:
8.11.1. EU
8.11.2. UK
8.11.3. Germany
8.11.4. Nordic countries
8.11.5. Further countries in Europe
8.11.6. Japan
8.11.7. South Korea:
8.11.8. USA
8.11.9. India
8.11.10. China
8.11.11. South Africa
8.11.12. Brazil
8.11.13. Beside the BRICS
8.12. Players
8.12.1. Traditional fuel cell car manufacturers
8.12.2. The pioneers
8.12.3. But some changed for batteries...
8.12.4. Some started early and still don´t show clear direction...
8.13. Some alliances and initiatives
8.14. The OEMS and their fuel cell cars in detail
8.14.1. Daimler
8.14.2. GM
8.14.3. Honda
8.14.4. Toyota
8.14.5. VW Group
8.14.6. Audi
8.14.7. Hyundai
8.14.8. Nissan
8.15. Some newer suppliers and users examined
8.15.1. Overview
8.15.2. Intelligent Energy
8.15.3. Michelin F-CITY
8.15.4. Riversimple
8.15.5. Belenos F-500 (fuel cell range extender)
8.15.6. Ecomove (QBEAK)
8.15.7. GreenGT
8.15.8. Other approaches
8.16. Shale gas profitability doubts cast shadow on fuel cell cars launch

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