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PharmaPoint: Atrial Fibrillation - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2025

PharmaPoint: Atrial Fibrillation - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2025

Summary

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia and is a heart condition that causes an irregular and often abnormally fast heart rate. Various therapeutic options are available to treat patients with AF, and most patients will receive some form of antithrombotic therapy, a heart rate control agent, and potentially an antiarrhythmic drug for rhythm control.

All sectors of the AF market have historically been saturated with generics, with the vitamin K antagonists such as warfarin playing an important role in stroke prevention in AF. However, since 2010, and the launch of the first of the new oral anticoagulants (NOACs), a shift in the treatment of patients with AF has occurred. The NOACs offer a significant advancement in anticoagulation and their continued uptake will be the main driver of growth in the AF market over the next 10 years.

In contrast, despite a great unmet need for safer antiarrhythmic drugs, developments in this field are expected to be much slower and there are presently no late-stage drug candidates that are expected to address this unmet need during the forecast period.

Highlights

Key Questions Answered

  • The anticoagulant market for stroke prevention in AF has become increasingly crowded. How will the drug treatment landscape for AF change? Which of the NOACs will become the market leader over the next ten years? What are the key drivers and barriers to this change?
  • The AF market is marked by the presence of a number of unmet needs. What are the main unmet needs in the treatment of AF? Will the drugs under development fulfil the unmet needs of the AF market?
  • Will any late-stage anticoagulants drugs make a significant impact on the AF market? What subgroups of the AF population will they target?
Scope
  • Overview of AF, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines.
  • Annualized AF therapeutics market revenue, annual cost of therapy, and treatment usage pattern data from 2015, forecast for ten years to 2025.
  • Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping, and implications for the AF therapeutics market.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global AF therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints, and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to -
  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline. Additionally a list of acquisition targets included in the pipeline product company list.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global AF therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global AF therapeutics market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Track drug sales in the global AF therapeutics market from 2015-2025.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.


1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Introduction
2.1 Catalyst
2.2 Related Reports
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports
3 Disease Overview
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
3.1.1 Etiology
3.1.2 Pathophysiology
3.2 Symptoms
3.3 Classification of Atrial Fibrillation
3.4 Prognosis
4 Epidemiology
4.1 Disease Background
4.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
4.3 Global Trends
4.4 Forecast Methodology
4.4.1 Sources Used
4.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
4.4.3 Sources Not Used
4.5 Epidemiological Forecast for AF (2015-2025)
4.5.1 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases
4.6 Discussion
4.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
4.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis
4.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis
5 Disease Management
5.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview
5.1.1 Diagnosis
5.1.2 Treatment Guidelines and Leading Prescribed Drugs
5.1.3 Clinical Practice
5.2 US
5.3 France
5.4 Germany
5.5 Italy
5.6 Spain
5.7 UK
5.8 Japan
5.9 Canada
6 Competitive Assessment
6.1 Overview
6.2 Product Profiles - Major Brands, Anticoagulant Agents
6.2.1 Warfarin (Widely Genericized)
6.2.2 Pradaxa (dabigatran)
6.2.3 Xarelto (rivaroxaban)
6.2.4 Eliquis (apixaban)
6.2.5 Savaysa (edoxaban)
6.3 Product Profiles - Major Brands, Antiarrhythmic Drugs
6.3.1 Multaq (dronedarone)
6.3.2 Brinavess (vernakalant)
6.4 Other Therapeutic Classes
6.4.1 Vitamin K Antagonists Other than Warfarin (Widely Genericized)
6.4.2 Antiplatelets - Aspirin (Widely Genericized)
6.4.3 Beta-Blockers - Atenolol, Metoprolol, Propranolol (Widely Genericized)
6.4.4 Calcium Channel Blockers - Diltiazem, Verapamil (Widely Genericized)
6.4.5 Cardiac Glycosides − Digoxin (Widely Genericized)
6.4.6 Potassium Channel Blockers - Amiodarone, Sotalol, Dofetilide (Widely Genericized)
6.4.7 Sodium Channel Blockers - Flecainide, Propafenone (Widely Genericized)
7 Unmet Need and Opportunity
7.1 Overview
7.2 Target Opportunity Profiles in Specific Patient Segments
7.2.1 Atrial Fibrillation Patients with Valvular AF and Mechanical Heart Valves
7.2.2 Atrial Fibrillation Patients with Severe Chronic Kidney Disease or Renal Failure
7.3 Safer Antiarrhythmic Drugs for the Maintenance of Sinus Rhythm
7.3.1 Unmet Need
7.3.2 Gap Analysis
7.3.3 Opportunity
7.4 Effective and Rapid-Acting Cardioversion Drugs
7.4.1 Unmet Need
7.4.2 Gap Analysis
7.4.3 Opportunity
7.5 Therapies for Valvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients
7.5.1 Unmet Need
7.5.2 Gap Analysis
7.5.3 Opportunity
7.6 Therapies for Atrial Fibrillation Patients with Severe Chronic Kidney Disease or Renal Failure
7.6.1 Unmet Need
7.6.2 Gap Analysis
7.6.3 Opportunity
7.7 Improved Access to and Reimbursement of the New Oral Anticoagulants
7.7.1 Unmet Need
7.7.2 Gap Analysis
7.7.3 Opportunity
7.8 Increased Physician Education on the Clinical Benefits of the NOACs
7.8.1 Unmet Need
7.8.2 Gap Analysis
7.8.3 Opportunity
7.9 Increased Patient Awareness of the Clinical Benefits and Proper Use of the NOACs
7.9.1 Unmet Need
7.9.2 Gap Analysis
7.9.3 Opportunity
7.10 Reversal agents for the New Oral Anticoagulants
7.10.1 Unmet Need
7.10.2 Gap Analysis
7.10.3 Opportunity
8 Pipeline Assessment
8.1 Overview
8.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development
8.2.1 Tecarfarin
8.3 Other Drugs in Development
8.3.1 Early-Stage Anticoagulant Pipeline
8.3.2 Early-Stage Antiarrhythmia Pipeline
9 Current and Future Players
9.1 Overview
9.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy
9.3 Company Profiles
9.3.1 Boehringer Ingelheim
9.3.2 Bayer
9.3.3 Janssen (Johnson & Johnson)
9.3.4 Bristol-Myers Squibb
9.3.5 Pfizer
9.3.6 Daiichi-Sankyo
9.3.7 Armetheon
10 Market Outlook
10.1 Global Markets
10.1.1 Forecast
10.1.2 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues
10.2 US
10.2.1 Forecast
10.2.2 Key Events
10.2.3 Drivers and Barriers
10.3 France
10.3.1 Forecast
10.3.2 Key Events
10.3.3 Drivers and Barriers
10.4 Germany
10.4.1 Forecast
10.4.2 Key Events
10.4.3 Drivers and Barriers
10.5 Italy
10.5.1 Forecast
10.5.2 Key Events
10.5.3 Drivers and Barriers
10.6 Spain
10.6.1 Forecast
10.6.2 Key Events
10.6.3 Drivers and Barriers
10.7 UK
10.7.1 Forecast
10.7.2 Key Events
10.7.3 Drivers and Barriers
10.8 Japan
10.8.1 Forecast
10.8.2 Key Events
10.8.3 Drivers and Barriers
10.9 Canada
10.9.1 Forecast
10.9.2 Key Events
10.9.3 Drivers and Barriers
11 Appendix
11.1 Bibliography
11.2 Abbreviations
11.3 Methodology
11.4 Forecasting Methodology
11.4.1 Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation Patients
11.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients
11.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class
11.4.4 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates
11.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions
11.4.6 Individual Drug Assumptions
11.4.7 Generic Erosion
11.4.8 Pricing of Pipeline Agents
11.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study
11.6 About the Authors
11.6.1 Analyst
11.6.2 Senior Analyst
11.6.3 Therapy Director
11.6.4 Epidemiologist
11.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
11.7 About GlobalData
11.8 Disclaimer
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Common Cardiac and Non-cardiac Causes of AF Table 2: Classification of AF Table 3: Clinical Subtypes of AF Table 4: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for AF Table 5: Prevalence (%) of AF as Reported in Epidemiological Studies Table 6: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF Table 7: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast Clinical Subtypes of Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF Table 8: 8MM, Sources Not Used in the Epidemiological Analysis of AF Table 9: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Ages ≥40 Years, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 Table 10: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 Table 11: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Ages ≥40 Years, N (Row %), 2015 Table 12: CHADS2 Index for Stroke Risk Assessment Table 13: CHA2DS2-VASc Index for Stroke Risk Assessment Table 14: Treatment Guidelines for AF by Country Table 15: Most Prescribed Drugs or Drug Classes for AF by Country, 2015 Table 16: Country Profile − US Table 17: Country Profile − France Table 18: Country Profile - Germany Table 19: Country Profile − Italy Table 20: Country Profile − Spain Table 21: Country Profile − UK Table 22: Country Profile − Japan Table 23: Country Profile − Canada Table 24: Leading Treatments and Branded Drugs for AF, 2016 Table 25: Product Profile - Warfarin (Widely Genericized) Table 26: Warfarin (Widely Genericized) SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 27: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Warfarin, 2015-2025 Table 28: Product Profile - Pradaxa (dabigatran) Table 29: Pradaxa (dabigatran) SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 30: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Pradaxa, 2015-2025 Table 31: Product Profile - Xarelto (rivaroxaban) Table 32: Xarelto (rivaroxaban) SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 33: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Xarelto, 2015-2025 Table 34: Product Profile - Eliquis (apixaban) Table 35: Eliquis (apixaban) SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 36: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Eliquis, 2015-2025 Table 37: Product Profile - Savaysa (edoxaban) Table 38: Savaysa (edoxaban) SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 39: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Savaysa, 2015-2025 Table 40: Product Profile - Multaq (dronedarone) Table 41: Overview of the Pivotal Clinical Trials for Multaq Table 42: Efficacy of Multaq in Patients with Paroxysmal or Persistent AF/AFL in the ATHENA Study Table 43: Efficacy of Multaq in Patients with Permanent AF in the PALLAS Study Table 44: Multaq (dronedarone) SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 45: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Multaq, 2015-2025 Table 46: Product Profile - Brinavess (vernakalant) Table 47: Efficacy of Intravenous Brinavess in Pivotal Late-Stage Clinical Trials Table 48: Brinavess (vernakalant) SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 49: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Brinavess, 2015-2025 Table 50: Summary of Widely Genericized Therapeutic Classes, 2014 Table 51: Commonly Used Genericized Vitamin K Antagonists (Excluding Warfarin), by Region Table 52: Unmet Need and Opportunity in AF Table 53: Target Opportunity Profile for AF Patients with Valvular AF and Mechanical Heart Valves Table 54: Target Opportunity Profile for AF Patients with Severe Chronic Kidney Disease or Renal Failure Table 55: Late-Stage Pipeline for AF, 2016 Table 56: Therapeutic Classes in Late-Stage Development for AF, 2016 Table 57: Product Profile - Tecarfarin Table 58: Treatment-Emergent Adverse Events Reported for >2 Patients in Phase IIa Tecarfarin Study Table 59: Tecarfarin SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 60: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Tecarfarin, 2015-2025 Table 61: Early-Stage Pipeline Products for AF - Anticoagulant Agents Table 62: Early-Stage Pipeline Products for AF - Antiarrhythmic Drugs Table 63: Key Companies in the AF Market, 2016 Table 64: Boehringer Ingelheim’s AF Portfolio Assessment, 2016 Table 65: Boehringer Ingelheim SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 66: Bayer’s AF Portfolio Assessment, 2016 Table 67: Bayer SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 68: Janssen’s AF Portfolio Assessment, 2016 Table 69: Janssen SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 70: Bristol-Myers Squibb’s AF Portfolio Assessment, 2016 Table 71: Bristol-Myers Squibb SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 72: Pfizer’s AF Portfolio Assessment, 2016 Table 73: Pfizer SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 74: Daiichi-Sankyo’s AF Portfolio Assessment, 2016 Table 75: Daiichi-Sankyo SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 76: Armetheon’s AF Portfolio Assessment, 2016 Table 77: Armetheon SWOT Analysis, 2016 Table 78: Global* Sales Forecasts ($m) for AF, 2015-2025 Table 79: Global AF Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2016 Table 80: Sales Forecasts ($m) for AF in the US, 2015-2025 Table 81: Key Events Impacting Sales for AF in the US, 2016 Table 82: AF Market - Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2015-2025 Table 83: Sales Forecasts ($m) for AF in France, 2015-2025 Table 84: Key Events Impacting Sales for AF in France, 2016 Table 85: AF Market - Drivers and Barriers in France, 2015-2025 Table 86: Sales Forecasts ($m) for AF in Germany, 2015-2025 Table 87: Key Events Impacting Sales for AF in Germany, 2016 Table 88: AF Market - Drivers and Barriers in Germany, 2015-2025 Table 89: Sales Forecasts ($m) for AF in Italy, 2015-2025 Table 90: Key Events Impacting Sales for AF in Italy, 2016 Table 91: AF Market - Drivers and Barriers in Italy, 2015-2025 Table 92: Sales Forecasts ($m) for AF in Spain, 2015-2025 Table 93: Key Events Impacting Sales for AF in Spain, 2016 Table 94: AF Market - Drivers and Barriers in Spain, 2015-2025 Table 95: Sales Forecasts ($m) for AF in the UK, 2015-2025 Table 96: Key Events Impacting Sales for AF in the UK, 2016 Table 97: AF Market - Drivers and Barriers in the UK, 2015-2025 Table 98: Sales Forecasts ($m) for AF in Japan, 2015-2025 Table 99: Key Events Impacting Sales for AF in Japan, 2016 Table 100: AF Market - Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2015-2025 Table 101: Sales Forecasts ($m) for AF in Canada 2015-2025 Table 102: Key Events Impacting Sales for AF in Canada, 2016 Table 103: AF Market - Drivers and Barriers in Canada, 2015-2025 Table 104: Key Launch Dates Table 105: Key Patent Expiries Table 106: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Ages ≥40 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2015-2025
Figure 2: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Both Sexes, N, 2015
Figure 3: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Ages ≥40 Years, 2015
Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of AF, Ages ≥40 Years, N, 2015
Figure 5: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF by Clinical Subtypes, Both Sexes, Ages ≥40 Years, 2015
Figure 6: ESC Guideline Recommendations for Choosing an Anticoagulant
Figure 7: JCS Guideline Recommendations for Choosing an Anticoagulant
Figure 8: CCS Guideline Recommendations for Choosing an Anticoagulant
Figure 9: AHA Guideline Recommendations for Drug Therapy for Ventricular Rate Control
Figure 10: AHA Guideline Recommendations for Rhythm Control in Patients with Paroxysmal and Persistent AF
Figure 11: ESC Guideline Recommendations for Rhythm Control According to Underlying Pathology
Figure 12: JCS Guideline Recommendations for Rhythm Control
Figure 13: Site of Action of the New Oral Anticoagulants in the Anticoagulation Cascade
Figure 14: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents for AF, 2015-2025
Figure 15: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in AF, 2015-2025
Figure 16: Global Sales for AF by Country, 2015-2025
Figure 17: Annual Global Sales for AF by Region, 2015-2025
Figure 18: Global* AF Sales by Drug Class, 2015-2025
Figure 19: Annual Global* Sales for AF by Drug Class, 2015-2025
Figure 20: Annual Global* Sales for the Novel Oral Anticoagulants, 2015-2025
Figure 21: Sales for AF in the US by Drug Class, 2015-2025
Figure 22: Sales for AF in France by Drug Class, 2015-2025
Figure 23: Sales for AF in Germany by Drug Class, 2015-2025
Figure 24: Sales for AF in Italy by Drug Class, 2015-2025
Figure 25: Sales for AF in Spain by Drug Class, 2015-2025
Figure 26: Sales for AF in the UK by Drug Class, 2015-2025
Figure 27: Sales for AF in Japan by Drug Class, 2015-2025
Figure 28: Sales for AF in Canada by Drug Class, 2015-2025

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