EpiCast Report: Prostate Cancer - Epidemiology Forecast to 2026
Prostate cancer is a malignancy in the prostate gland, which is located below the bladder and in front of the rectum in males. Worldwide, about 1.1 million men were diagnosed with prostate cancer in 2012 (IARC, 2017). In the US, prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men after skin cancer, and it is the third most common cause of cancer death in men (ACS, 2017). Approximately one in seven American men are diagnosed with prostate cancer in their lifetime. However, most are diagnosed after age 65, and patients often live long enough that they die of other causes (ACS, 2017).
In 2016, there were almost 0.5 million diagnosed incident cases of prostate cancer in the 7MM. The US had the most cases with around 150,000, or nearly 33% of cases in the 7MM, followed by Japan (about 100,000, or about 22.2% of cases). Spain had the lowest number of cases with nearly 26,000, or around 5.5% of cases in the 7MM. The number of cases in the 7MM is expected to grow to almost 550,000 by 2026, for an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.67%.
The US will still have the highest number of cases, with almost 186,000, at an AGR of over 2%, again followed by Japan (116,539 cases, AGR 1.16%). Spain will see the greatest growth (AGR around 2.5%), but will still have fewer cases than all other markets (around 32,000). Germany is expected to see the smallest increase in cases, with an AGR of nearly 1%. None of the countries are expected to see a decrease in cases.
In 2016, there were around 4.4 million prevalent cases of prostate cancer diagnosed in the previous 10 years in the 7MM. The US made up the largest share of prevalent cases with around 1.8 million or just over 42% of cases in the 7MM. Japan had the next highest number of cases with nearly 0.7 million, followed by Germany with around 540,000. Spain had the lowest number of prevalent cases, with nearly 230,000, making up only for about 5% of cases in the 7MM.
The number of 10-year prevalent cases in the 7MM is expected to increase to about 4.6 million by 2026, for an AGR of about 0.4% per year. Japan is expected to see the greatest increase in prevalent cases: our epidemiologists predict around 1 million cases in 2026, for an AGR of about 4.8%. The UK, Spain, and Italy are also expected to see an increase in the number of cases. The US will still have the greatest number of cases in 2026 (around 1.5 million), but it is expected to see the greatest decrease in cases (AGR of negative 1.47%). France and Germany are also expected to see decreases in the number of 10-year diagnosed prevalent cases.
The report EpiCast Report: Prostate Cancer - Epidemiology Forecast to 2026, provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global and historical trends for prostate cancer in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for diagnosed incident cases of prostate cancer in men segmented by age (beginning at 35 years), stage at diagnosis (stage I, II, III, and IV), and risk of biochemical recurrence (low, intermediate, and high) in these markets. Additionally, this report forecasts 10-year prevalent cases of prostate cancer segmented by castration resistance, metastases, and HRD mutations.
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