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Prostate Cancer Market to 2021 - Increasing Disease Prevalence to be a Key Driver of Market Growth

Prostate Cancer Market to 2021 - Increasing Disease Prevalence to be a Key Driver of Market Growth

Summary


Prostate Cancer (PC) is a disease predominately of the elderly with 60% of cases diagnosed in men aged 65 or over. Prostate cancer is slow growing, and asymptomatic at its earliest stages. However, with the use of digital rectal examination, the PSA test, and the incidental discovery of tumors following resection of the prostate, the majority of PC cases are diagnosed at an early stage (60%). As PC is slow growing, many patients can leave their disease untreated for extended periods of time with frequent monitoring (watchful waiting or active surveillance), with many patients dying from other causes before treatment is indicated. Surgery and/or radiotherapy is often curative when treatment is indicated for localized disease, with androgen deprivation being the standard of first-line care. However, most patients ultimately develop resistant disease, for whom treatment options have historically been limited, with treatment with docetaxel being standard. The recent approval of Zytiga and Xtandi for docetaxel refractory disease in 2011 and 2012 have improved survival of resistant patients, but there is a clear clinical need to diversify the treatment options for this patient cohort.

The current late-stage drugs in development for PC address this clinical need, however, results so far have been mixed, with none demonstrating clinically transformative efficacy of safety. As a result, the growth in PC prevalence as a result of a global aging population is expected to be the key driver of this market throughout the forecast period.

Scope

Global revenues for the PC market are forecast to rise at a moderate CAGR of 9.5% from $7.6bn in 2014 to $13.6bn in 2021.

  • What factors are driving the market growth?
  • How can the factors limiting growth be overcome in the future?
The pipeline addresses clinical need in the market; seven of the nine late-stage pipeline products are being developed as therapies for metastatic castration resistant disease.
  • What other gaps in the market are being addressed by the current pipeline dynamics?
The variation in molecule type has shifted away from small molecules (predominately hormonal therapies), the dominance of which has decreased from 91% across marketed products to 50% across the pipeline.
  • What are the dynamics of the remaining 50% of the pipeline?
  • How does this reflect the need for novel targeted therapies?
There has been a significant shift away from hormonal therapies. Key mechanisms of action across the pipeline include cancer immunotherapies against PSMA, whole cell vaccines and targeted therapies against the PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathway.
  • What is the scientific rationale behind these targets?
  • How successful have drugs against these targets been? How successful are they expected to be in the future?
Several drugs are expected to be approved during the forecast period: ProstAtak, ODM201, ARN-509, and Tookad. However, their sales are expected to be limited by high costs and a lack of comparative trials.
  • Where will these novel therapies fit into the current treatment algorithm for PC?
Reasons to buy

This report will allow you to -
  • Understand the current clinical and commercial landscape by considering disease pathogenesis, diagnosis, prognosis, and the treatment options available at each stage of diagnosis.
  • Visualize the composition of the PC market in terms of dominant molecule types and targets, highlighting the current unmet needs and how they can be addressed to allow a competitive understanding of gaps in the current market.
  • Analyze the PC pipeline and stratify by stage of development, molecule type, and molecular target.
  • Visualize the clinical safety and efficacy of late-stage pipeline drugs via a detailed heat map, outlining the results across major clinical trial endpoints.
  • Understand the growth in patient epidemiology, annual therapy costs, and market revenues for the AML market globally and across the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan, and Canada.
  • Identify commercial opportunities in the PC deals landscape by analyzing trends in licensing and co-development deals.


1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Introduction
2.1 Disease Introduction
2.2 Symptoms and Risk Factors
2.3 Etiology and Pathophysiology
2.4 Diagnosis
2.4.1 Digital Rectal Examination
2.4.2 Imaging
2.4.3 Biopsy
2.4.4 Tumor Markers
2.5 Disease Staging and Risk Assessment
2.6 Treatment Algorithm
2.6.1 Localized or Locally Advanced Prostate Cancer
2.6.2 Hormone Sensitive Metastatic Prostate Cancer
2.6.3 Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer
2.6.4 Heat Map – Marketed Products Overview
3 Marketed Products
3.1 Hormonal Therapies
3.1.1 First Generation
3.1.2 Second Generation
3.2 Chemotherapy Agents
3.2.1 Taxotere (docetaxel) – Sanofi
3.2.2 Jevtana (cabazitaxel) – Sanofi
3.3 Therapeutic Vaccines
3.3.1 Provenge (sipuleucel-t) – Dendreon
3.4 Bone Metastasis Treatments
3.4.1 Xofigo (radium 223) – Bayer/Algeta
3.4.2 Xgeva (denosumab) – Amgen
3.4.3 Zometa (zoledronic acid) – Novartis
4 Pipeline Product Developments
4.1 Developmental Pipeline by Phase and Molecular Target
4.2 Mechanisms of Action in the Pipeline
5 Clinical Trials
5.1 Clinical Trial Failure Rate
5.2 Clinical Trial Duration
5.2.1 Clinical Trial Size
5.3 Promising Pipeline Molecules
5.3.1 Localized Disease
5.3.2 mCRPC – First Line
5.3.3 mCRPC – Second Line
6 Market Forecasts
6.1 Global
6.1.1 Treatment Usage Patterns
6.1.2 Market Size
6.2 North America
6.2.1 US
6.2.2 Canada
6.3 Top Five European Markets
6.3.1 Treatment Usage Patterns
6.3.2 Annual Cost of Therapy
6.3.3 Market Size
6.4 Japan
6.4.1 Treatment Usage Patterns
6.4.2 Annual Cost of Therapy
6.4.3 Market Size
7 Drivers and Barriers
7.1 Market Drivers
7.1.1 Major Unmet Treatment Needs of Late-Stage PC Patients
7.1.2 Increasing Incidence of PC Driven by Global Aging of Population
7.1.3 Continued Uptake of Zytiga and Xtandi
7.1.4 Approval of Numerous Premium Products in PC Market
7.1.5 High Number of Pipeline Drugs
7.2 Market Barriers
7.2.1 Recent and Future Patent Expiries
7.2.2 Uptake Limited by Premium Price of Several Novel Therapies
8 Strategic Consolidation
8.1 Co-development Deals
8.1.1 Pfizer Enters into Co-Development Agreement with Merck
8.1.2 Immatics Enters into R&D Agreement with Roche for Cancer Vaccine
8.1.3 Merck & Co Enters into Agreement with ARIAD Pharma
8.1.4 Medivation Enters into Co-Development Agreement with Astellas Pharma
8.1.5 Aduro Biotech Enters into Agreement with Novartis for Immuno-Oncology Products
8.1.6 Bayer Schering Enters into Co-Development Agreement with Micromet
8.1.7 Takeda Pharma Enters into Agreement with Cell Genesys
8.2 Licensing Deals
8.2.1 Astellas Pharma Enters into Licensing Agreement with AVEO Pharma for Tivozanib
8.2.2 Algeta Enters into Licensing Agreement with Bayer for Alpharadin
8.2.3 Sanofi-Aventis Enters into Licensing Agreement with Oxford BioMedica
8.2.4 Ascenta Therapeutics Enters into Licensing Agreement with Sanofi
8.2.5 Aduro Biotech Enters into Exclusive Licensing Agreement with Janssen Biotech
9 Appendix
9.1 All Pipeline Drugs by Phase
9.1.1 Discovery
9.1.2 Preclinical
9.1.3 IND/CTA-Filed
9.1.4 Phase I
9.1.5 Phase II
9.1.6 Phase III
9.2 Market Forecasts to 2021
9.2.1 Global
9.2.2 US
9.2.3 Canada
9.2.4 UK
9.2.5 France
9.2.6 Germany
9.2.7 Italy
9.2.8 Spain
9.2.9 Japan
9.3 References
9.4 Abbreviations
9.5 Research Methodology
9.5.1 Secondary Research
9.5.2 Marketed Product Profiles
9.5.3 Late-Stage Pipeline Candidates
9.5.4 Comparative Efficacy and Safety Heat Map for Marketed and Pipeline Products
9.5.5 Product Competitiveness Framework
9.5.6 Pipeline Analysis
9.5.7 Forecasting Model
9.5.8 Deals Data Analysis
9.6 Contact Us
9.7 Disclaimer
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Commonly Mutated or Overexpressed Genes
Table 2: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Disease Stage Classification
Table 3: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Risk Classification for Localized Cancer, D’Amico System
Table 4: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Common Definitions of High-Risk Prostate Cancer
Table 5: Marketed GnRH Agonists and Their Routes of Administration for Prostate Cancer
Table 6: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Top Five European Markets, Forecast Growth in Prevalence and Treatment Populations, 2014–2021
Table 7: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Top Five European Markets, Annual Cost of Therapy ($), 2014–2021
Table 8: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Top Five European Markets, Market Size ($m), 2014–2021
Table 9: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Developmental Pipeline, Discovery, 2015
Table 10: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Developmental Pipeline, Preclinical, 2015
Table 11: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Developmental Pipeline, IND/CTA-Filed, 2015
Table 12: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Developmental Pipeline, Phase I, 2015
Table 13: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Developmental Pipeline, Phase II, 2015
Table 14: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Developmental Pipeline, Phase III, 2015
Table 15: Prostate Cancer Market, Global, Market Forecasts, 2014–2021
Table 16: Prostate Cancer Market, US, Market Forecasts, 2014–2021
Table 17: Prostate Cancer Market, Canada, Market Forecasts, 2014–2021
Table 18: Prostate Cancer Market, The UK, Market Forecasts, 2014–2021
Table 19: Prostate Cancer Market, France, Market Forecasts, 2014–2021
Table 20: Prostate Cancer Market, Germany, Market Forecasts, 2014–2021
Table 21: Prostate Cancer Market, Italy, Market Forecasts, 2014–2021
Table 22: Prostate Cancer Market, Spain, Market Forecasts, 2014–2021
Table 23: Prostate Cancer Market, Japan, Market Forecasts, 2014–2021
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Treatment, Stages I and II
Figure 2: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Treatment, Stage III
Figure 3: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Treatment, Stage IV
Figure 4: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Efficacy Results for Key Parameters – Marketed Products, Hormone Sensitive Disease
Figure 5: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Safety Results for Key Parameters – Marketed Products, Hormone Sensitive Disease
Figure 6: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Efficacy Results for Key Parameters – Marketed Products, First-line Treatment mCRPC
Figure 7: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Safety Results for Key Parameters – Marketed Products, First-line Treatment mCRPC
Figure 8: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Efficacy Results for Key Parameters – Marketed Products, Second-line Treatment mCRPC
Figure 9: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Safety Results for Key Parameters – Marketed Products, Second-line Treatment mCRPC
Figure 10: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Overview of Pipeline Products
Figure 11: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Mechanisms of Action
Figure 12: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Mechanisms of Action
Figure 13: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Clinical Trial Failure Rate (%), 2006–2015
Figure 14: Market Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Clinical Trial Failure Rate by Molecule Type (%), 2006–2015
Figure 15: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Clinical Trial Failure Rate by Mechanism of Action (%), 2006–2015
Figure 16: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Molecule Type (months), 2006–2015
Figure 17: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Mechanism of Action (months), 2006–2015
Figure 18: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Size per Product by Molecule Type (participants), 2006–2015
Figure 19: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Clinical Trial Size per Product by Mechanism of Action (participants), 2006–2015
Figure 20: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Clinical Trial Size per Individual Trial by Molecule Type (participants), 2006–2015
Figure 21: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Clinical Trial Size of Products by Mechanism of Action (participants), 2006–2015
Figure 22: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Tookad Revenue Forecast ($m), 2018–2021
Figure 23: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, ProstAtak Revenue Forecast ($m), 2019–2021
Figure 24: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Efficacy Results for Key Parameters – Pipeline Products, Localized Disease
Figure 25: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Safety Results for Key Parameters – Pipeline Products, Localized Disease
Figure 26: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, ODM-201 Forecast Revenue ($m), 2018–2021
Figure 27: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Prostvac Revenue Forecast ($m), 2017–2021
Figure 28: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, ARN-509 Revenue Forecast ($m), 2020–2021
Figure 29: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Custirsen Sodium Revenue Forecast ($m), 2017–2021
Figure 30: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Efficacy Results for Key Parameters – Marketed (Highlighted in Blue) and Pipeline Products, mCRPC – First Line
Figure 31: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Safety Results for Key Parameters – Marketed (Highlighted in Blue) and Pipeline Products, mCRPC – First Line
Figure 32: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, DCVAC Revenue Forecast ($m), 2019–2021
Figure 33: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Efficacy Results for Key Parameters – Marketed (Highlighted in Blue) and Pipeline Products, mCRPC – Second Line
Figure 34: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Treatment Usage Patterns (‘000), 2014–2021
Figure 35: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Market Size ($bn), 2014–2021
Figure 36: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, US, Treatment Usage Patterns (‘000) and Annual Cost of Therapy ($), 2014–2021
Figure 37: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, US, Market Revenue ($m), 2014–2021
Figure 38: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Canada, Treatment Usage Patterns and ACoT (‘000; $), 2014–2021
Figure 39: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Canada, Market Revenue ($m), 2014–2021
Figure 40: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Top Five European Markets, Treatment Usage Patterns (‘000), 2014–2021
Figure 41: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Top Five European Markets, Annual Cost of Therapy ($), 2014–2021
Figure 42: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Top Five European Markets, Market Revenue ($m), 2014–2021
Figure 43: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Japan, Treatment Usage Patterns and Annual Cost of Therapy (‘000; $), 2014–2021
Figure 44: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Japan, Market Revenue ($m), 2014–2021
Figure 45: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Co-Development Deals by Region, Value and Year, 2006–2014
Figure 46: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Co-Development Deals by Molecule Type, 2006–2014
Figure 47: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Co-Development Deals by Molecule Type, 2006–2014
Figure 48: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Licensing Deals by Value and Year, 2006–2014
Figure 49: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Licensing Deals by Phase and Molecule Type, 2006–2014
Figure 50: Prostate Cancer Therapeutics, Global, Licensing Deals by Mechanism of Action, 2006–2014

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