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Strategic Overview of the Passenger Vehicle Market in Iran

Strategic Overview of the Passenger Vehicle Market in Iran

Key Findings

Iran offers great opportunity to carmakers and parts manufacturers, but the status quo has changed over the past 4–5 years with Iranian OEMs empowered by high levels of localization.

Passenger Vehicle (PV) Market: Executive Summary, Iran, 2015

A nuclear agreement finalized in 2015 will make Iran a 2.4 million unit automotive market by 2022, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 􂀀% (2014–2022).

By 2022, B segment vehicles with􂀀% market share will be the most preferred segment followed by C segment vehicles at􂀀%.

Chinese automotive OEMs’ market share is expected to rise to 􂀀% by 2022 from 􂀀% in 2014 as they gain a foothold by swiftly filling the void left by the European OEMs.

It is estimated that the time from lifting of sanctions to regaining business normalcy could take about 6 months, while the automotive industry will take 􂀀 months to regain momentum.

Localisation of the Iranian automotive supply chain in the past 􂀀years has become high but at the cost of reliability and quality. International suppliers, technology, and finance are the need of the hour.

European and Japanese automotive OEMs such as Renault and Mazda in the short term (up to 4 years) will import completely knocked down (CKDs) and semi-knocked down (SKDs) kits in the mid segment and completely built units (CBUs) in the premium segment to gain presence in Iran.

Iranian regulations are expected to mandate the need for greater localisation among OEMs in the production stages by 2016 to boost the local economy and help increase employment.

The top new vehicle purchase parameters are price and quality for the urban middle class (average annual income of $􂀀).

About this report

The aim of this study is to analyze developments in the Iranian passenger vehicle (PV) market in light of the impact of the Iranian Nuclear Agreement that will remove economic sanctions imposed on the country. The analysis highlights business opportunities and challenges across the Iranian PV market and provides a strategic overview of key market participants, opportunities, challenges, import duty structure, and forecasts. In addition, the research captures scenarios involving the economic sanctions easing, the resulting impact on the automotive industry, and expected changes in the regulatory framework that would affect the Iranian automotive industry. The study period runs 2014 (base year) to 2022.

  • Executive Summary
    • Key Findings
    • Country Profile
    • Political and Economic Landscape
    • SWOT Analysis of Iranian Automotive Industry
    • Iran's Automotive Industry-2014 Outlook
  • Research Scope and Segmentation
    • Research Scope
    • Research Aims and Objectives
    • Vehicle Segmentation
  • Iran's Automotive Industry Analysis
    • Iran's Automotive Industry 2015
    • Emission Regulations
    • Free Trade Zones
    • Top Selling Models
      • Table PV Market: Top Models by Segment, Iran, 2014
    • Iran's Automotive Industry 2014-Chinese Invasion
  • Forecast, Sales, and Segments
    • Passenger Vehicle Sales Forecast
    • Passenger Vehicle Segment Analysis
  • Import Duties and Procedure on Automotive Industry
    • Customs' Duty Slabs on Automotive Imports
      • Table PV Market: Tax Structure on Vehicles, Iran, 2015
    • Customs' Duty Slabs on Automotive Parts
      • Table PV Market: Tax Structure on Automotive Parts, Iran, 2015
    • Customs' Import Procedure for Foreign OEMs and Suppliers
  • Iranian Automotive OEM Analysis
    • OEM Distribution Network
      • Table PV Market: Retail Network, Iran, 2014
    • OEM Competitive Analysis
    • Iran-Khodro Company (IKCO)
    • IKCO Product Range
    • Société Anonyme Iranienne de Production Automobile-SAIPA
    • SAIPA Product Line
  • Impact of P5+1 Nuclear Agreement on Iranian Automotive Industry
    • Impact of P5+1-Iran Nuclear Agreement
    • Scenarios of the P5+1-Iran Nuclear Agreement
    • Partnership and Market Composition Explained
    • Supply Chain and Import Trade Explained
    • Route to Market and Key Focus Explained
    • Iranian Regulatory Framework
    • Opportunities in Iran
  • Conclusions
    • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Appendix
    • List of Acronyms/Abbreviations
    • Market Engineering Methodology

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