Indonesia Property Industry Report - 2015
Indonesia’s property industry has witnessed consistent growth in recent years. The country’s positive economic climate in tandem with a growing middle-class have boosted domestic demand and increased developers’ confidence to continuously launch property projects in Indonesia. This has resulted in higher sales of most of the property industry’s sub-sectors as well as higher rental rates.
However, after a strong growth in FY14, the local property market experienced a tough time in the first half of FY15. Property firms felt the heat of the government’s recent mortgage regulation, coupled with the country’s sluggish macroeconomic conditions. All the property segments, barring the industrial real estate, saw lower growth in key performance indicators as compared to 2014. Residential prices have decelerated and the trend is expected to continue through the second half of 2015.
With persistent residential property demand and supply growth, rental rates are expected to pick up and occupancy levels are likely to grow in line with more expatriates. Backed by Indonesia’s developing economy, especially domestic consumption, average rental rates for offices and retail space are also expected to increase along with occupancy.
Between May-Nov 2013, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) policy rate saw steep increase of 1.75% in five phases, primarily due to the surge in inflation. Rise in interest rates has dented industrial growth and the residential property market as loans have become costlier.
Indonesia has seen rapid urbanization as cities are the drivers of economic growth and job creation. The urban population increased from 43% in 2001 to 52% in 2013. As a result, the percentage of households residing in their own houses has declined gradually.
The Asia-Pacific region saw subdued annual growth in the average house price index for Q1/2015 averaging 4.2% on a y/y basis, lower than 6.6% last year. The double-digit decline in Chinese property market pulled down the index as a whole. Indonesia saw a growth of 6.3% y/y.
After gradual appreciation during 2010-12, the residential property price index shot up in 2013 due to higher demand. However, cooling measures undertaken by BI brought down the index’s growth post 3Q13.
1. Industry profile
1.1 Sector overview
1.2 Residential sector
1.3 Industrial real-estate
1.4 Office space
1.5 Retail space
1.6 Hospitality space
2. Market trends and outlook
2.1 Construction sector trends
2.2 Property financing
2.3 Market outlook
3. Leading players and comparative matrix
3.1 Leading players
3.1.1 PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (Lippo)
3.1.2 PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSD)
3.1.3 PT Ciputra Development Tbk (Ciputra)
3.2 Comparative matrix
3.3 SWOT analysis
4. Tables and charts
Table 1: Asia-Pacific house price index (Q1/2014)
Table 2: House ownership in major provinces of Indonesia
Table 3: Lippo Karawaci financial highlights
Table 4: BSD financial highlights
Table 5: Ciputra financial highlights
Table 6: Key financial ratios of the leading players
Chart 1: Quarterly GDP growth rate-Indonesia
Chart 2: Trade balance of Indonesia (in USD mn)
Chart 3: Average monthly USD to IDR exchange rate
Chart 4: Government budget deficit (as a % of GDP)
Chart 5: CPI Inflation during FY13/14-Indonesia.
Chart 6: BI rate in Indonesia
Chart 7: Indonesia’s GNI per capita, Atlas method
Chart 8: Urbanization and percentage of households by ownership status
Chart 9: Residential property price index: 2002=100: Q/Q: 16 cities (in %)
Chart 10: Residential property price index: size of buildings: 2002=100: Q/Q: 16 cities (in %)
Chart 11: Residential property price index: 2002=100: Y/Y: 16 cities (in %)
Chart 12: Total apartment sales in Greater Jakarta area
Chart 13: Average selling price and rental yields in the Greater Jakarta apartment market
Chart 14: Occupancy rate in the Greater Jakarta apartment market
Chart 15: Total industrial area stock in Greater Jakarta area
Chart 16: Average selling price in the Greater Jakarta industrial real estate market
Chart 17: Total office space stock in Greater Jakarta area
Chart 18: Monthly rental in the Greater Jakarta office space market
Chart 19: Total retail space stock in Greater Jakarta area.
Chart 20: Monthly rentals in the Greater Jakarta retail space market
Chart 21: Total room inventory (3-5 star) in Greater Jakarta area
Chart 22: Average room rate in the Greater Jakarta
Chart 23: Construction value index-Indonesia
Chart 24: Y/Y growth in construction value index by major provinces (March 2014)
Chart 25: Prime lending rate for home loans- average of 32 major banks
Chart 26: Total outstanding home loans disbursed by commercial banks in Indonesia
Chart 27: Projected residential property price index: 2002=100: Q/Q: 16 Cities
Chart 28: Lippo’s segment wise distribution of revenue
Chart 29: BSD’s segment wise distribution of revenue
Chart 30: Ciputra’s segment wise distribution of revenue
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