Our growth forecast for the Turkish economy has been upgraded this quarter, which shouldhelp cement our healthy forecasts for freight transport in Turkey over the short term at least. Hugestrides were taken towards the possibility of a normalisation of trade relations between Turkey and Russiain May 2017, when an accord was signed to remove the restrictions that were put in place following thedowning of a Russian warplane in November 2015. Also, rising levels of domestic demand and increasedeconomic activity across the nation will boost import and export levels in real terms in 2017, and over theforecast period to 2021.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
In light of strong Q1 2017 GDP readings and an improving near-term economic outlook, we haveupgraded our growth forecast for Turkey. This is a positive for the freight modes most used for consumergoods, namely road and, to a lesser extent, air freight. We now expect real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2017and 3.2% in 2018, from 2.6% and 2.9% previously. Economic activity gathered pace in the first quarterof 2017, with real GDP growth accelerating to 5.0% y-o-y, from 3.5% the previous quarter, andsurprising consensus to the upside.
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