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Turkey Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

Turkey Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

BMI View: Politics will play on the Turkish freight sector in both positive and negative ways in 2016, assanctions imposed by Russia following the Turks' downing of their aircraft will limit trade in fruit andvegetables, while the re-emergence of Iran once sanctions have been removed will have a positive influenceon Turkish trade volumes. A relatively upbeat outlook for economic growth will bolster trade volumes andwe are positive across the country's freight modes.

A decisive victory for Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the November 1 snap election hasbeen positive for the short-term growth outlook, and this will have a positive influence on trade and freightvolume growth. Reduced political uncertainty is reflected in a strong bounce in the November consumerand business confidence, which will support consumption and investment in the coming months - andthereby containerised freight volumes and dry bulk and project cargo volumes. We have revised up ourestimate for 2015 real GDP growth to 2.8%, from 2.3% previously. However, as we have argued before, areturn to single-party rule under the AKP is no panacea as significant macro headwinds and policy risks lieahead on various fronts. We forecast below-consensus real GDP growth of 2.9% and 3.2% in 2016 and2017 respectively.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Turkey 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Turkey 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Turkey 2012-2019)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Turkish Cargo
Turkish State Railways (TCDD)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Foreign Policy
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Turkey Political Overview*
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Turkey 2010-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Turkey 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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