Turkey Freight Transport Report Q1 2016
BMI View: Politics will play on the Turkish freight sector in both positive and negative ways in 2016, assanctions imposed by Russia following the Turks' downing of their aircraft will limit trade in fruit andvegetables, while the re-emergence of Iran once sanctions have been removed will have a positive influenceon Turkish trade volumes. A relatively upbeat outlook for economic growth will bolster trade volumes andwe are positive across the country's freight modes.
A decisive victory for Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the November 1 snap election hasbeen positive for the short-term growth outlook, and this will have a positive influence on trade and freightvolume growth. Reduced political uncertainty is reflected in a strong bounce in the November consumerand business confidence, which will support consumption and investment in the coming months - andthereby containerised freight volumes and dry bulk and project cargo volumes. We have revised up ourestimate for 2015 real GDP growth to 2.8%, from 2.3% previously. However, as we have argued before, areturn to single-party rule under the AKP is no panacea as significant macro headwinds and policy risks lieahead on various fronts. We forecast below-consensus real GDP growth of 2.9% and 3.2% in 2016 and2017 respectively.
Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.Download eBook