Taiwan Freight Transport Report Q3 2015
BMI View: Over 2015, the outperforming freight mode in terms of year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage growth isset to be the air freight sector with annual gains of 4.08% pencilled in for the year. The other modes are setto struggle to top 1% y-o-y growth this year, but this will still represent an improvement year-on-year forboth road and rail. Growth in Q1 2015 was fuelled by both export and private consumption growth, whichlargely outweighed the collapse in both government consumption and gross fixed capital formation, provingpositive for the country's freight modes.
Taiwan's Q1 2015 real GDP grew by 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), picking up slightly from 3.3% in Q4 2014.
We maintain our real GDP growth forecast of 3.5% for 2015 amid a fairly positive domestic outlook, butnote that a challenging external environment will continue to present headwinds to Taiwanese exports overthe short term. We do caution, however, that any resumption in cross-strait political tensions is likely tohave rapid and negative consequences for the Taiwanese freight mix.
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