Taiwan Freight Transport Report Q1 2016
BMI View: Taiwan's freight transport sector will continue to be affected by the slowdown in the Chinese economy in 2016.
Taiwanese exports will feel the headwinds from China as well as the relative strength of the TWD compared to the KRW.
Air freight will continue its growth on a more moderate level over the short term, before picking up slightly in 2017/2018, while road and rail will both grow at a faster rate over the medium term.
Taiwan's economy contracted by 1.0% in Q315 compared to the 0.5% expansion registered in the previous quarter.
Ongoing weakness in the Chinese economy amid increasing uncertainty in the domestic political situation will continue to weight on Taiwan's economic growth.
As such, we have downgraded our 2015 and 2016 real GDP forecasts to 1.0% and 1.9% respectively.
GDP growth for 2016 was previously forecast at 2.5%.
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