Netherlands Freight Transport Report Q1 2016
BMI View: We expect continued growth for the Dutch freight industry in 2016 and over the medium term.
Private consumption will be a key for economic growth amidst falling gas exports, supporting importgrowth and thereby having a positive impact on all freight modes in the country. Rail freight will continueto have the strongest growth over the medium term, also increasing its market share as the sector willbenefit from the investments into European transport infrastructure and the removal of the sugar quota in2017. Both road and rail will benefit from growing domestic consumption, economic growth in main tradepartner Germany and strong fuel demand across Europe.
Although real GDP slowed markedly in Q215 - to 1.6% y-o-y, down from 2.5% in Q115 - we still maintainthat the Dutch consumer story remains robust. Private consumption expanded by a robust 1.7% y-o-y inQ215, broadly on a par with the 1.8% y-o-y growth in Q115, and the accompanying ramp-up in importgrowth in Q215 reduced the headline growth figure. Private consumption will remain a key contributor togrowth in the coming quarters, as households benefit from low inflation, rising house prices and atightening labour market. As a result, real GDP growth should accelerate in H215, prompting us to reviseslightly upwards our forecast to to 1.9% in 2016 (up from 1.8%).
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