India Freight Transport Report Q1 2016
BMI View: We expect positive growth across the board in India's freight transport sector in 2015 (endingMarch 2016) and over the medium term. However, the growth will not be even, with the anticipatedexpansion in air freight especially to outperform, while road freight - where growth will be tempered in thenear term by a gloomy outlook for agricultural produce - will lag.
According to our forecasts, Indian trade will see moderate growth in real terms in 2015 (ending March2016), rising by 1.8% - although this is an improvement on the real contraction recorded the previous year.Growth will accelerate in 2016, rising to 2.7%. Exports will be the key driver of growth in both years - in2015 exports will rise by 2.5% compared to imports' 1.0%, while in the following year the growth levelswill be 3.5% and 1.8% respectively. In positive news for air freight and the road haulage sector, we expectthe government's efforts to boost the manufacturing sector through the 'Make In India' campaign to continuegaining traction, and this is evident in various high frequency data.
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