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High And Extra High Voltage Transformers–the Most Critical U.S. Electrical Infrastructure Component–risk And Impact Of Solar Storms & Emp Attacks–u.S. Market, Installed Base And Suppliers: 2015-2020 Analysis And Forecasts

High And Extra High Voltage Transformers–the Most Critical U.S. Electrical Infrastructure Component–risk And Impact Of Solar Storms & Emp Attacks–u.S. Market, Installed Base And Suppliers: 2015-2020 Analysis And Forecasts

The objective of this report is to examine the U.S. market for High and Extra High Voltage Transformers in terms of the risk and impact of Solar Storms and EMP Attacks.

The thesis of this report is that the U.S. is not prepared in the event of a major Solar Storm or EMP attack to quickly restore the electric grid, due to its inability to replace High and Extra High Voltage transformers.

High and Extra High Voltage transformers are the most critical component of the U.S. electrical infrastructure.

There are thousands of High Voltage transformers installed in the United States today, but only a small number of these are very large units rated 345 kV and above.

The market for these transformers is very small and imports accounted for most of U.S. consumption of these products in 2015.

Further increasing the risk, there are only a few Extra High Voltage transformers available as spares.

Finally, there are only a small number of U.S companies still producing High and Extra High Voltage transformers. The other suppliers are foreign companies operating U.S. plants.

In other words, the U.S. can no longer supply most of its High and Extra High Voltage transformer needs, and if there was a major Solar Storm or EMP Attack, there are only enough spares to replace a small percent of the installed base.

As a result, in the event of a major Geomagnetic Storm or EMP Attack, the U.S. will not be able to restore its electric grid for months to years.

Key information presented in this report includes analysis of:

Critical Infrastructure Protection.

U.S. Energy Sector.

U.S. Electric Power System.

High Voltage Transformers.

High-Impact, Low-Frequency Events.

Solar Storms.

EMP Attacks.

U.S. Extra High Voltage Transformer Installed Base.

Investment Trends in U.S. Transmission Infrastructure.

U.S. High and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market.

Profiles of U.S. based producers of High and Extra High Voltage transformers.


INTRODUCTION
Report Objectives
Methodology and Sources
Statistical Notes
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION
Current Status
Presidential Policy Directive 21
2009 NIPP Evolution
Key Concepts
Critical infrastructure
Risk Environment
Strategic National Risk Assessment
Policy Environment
Critical Infrastructure Sectors
Executive Order 13636
PPD-8
Operating Environment
Deteriorating Critical Infrastructure Systems
Distributed Ownership Issues
Partnership Structures
Sector and Cross-Sector Councils
Sector-Specific Agencies
Federal and State Regulatory Agencies
Critical Infrastructure Owners and Operators
Protective Security Advisors
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR
U.S. Energy Sector Assets
Electricity
Electricity Generation
Electricity Transmission, Distribution and Control Systems
Transmission Lines
Transmission and Distribution Substations
Control Centers
Distribution Lines
Control Systems
Smart Grid Technologies
North American Electric Power Grid System
Electric Generation and Transmission Information
U.S. ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM
World’s Largest Integrated Machine
Diverse Ecosystem
Widespread Technological Differences
Power Delivery System Components
Reliability Issues
Dynamic Control
System Protections
System Interconnections
Increased Operational Complexity
Increased Digital Technology
Regulatory Activities
State Regulatory Commissions
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Normal Disturbances in System Operations
Causes of Disruptions
Power System Choke Points and Vulnerabilities
Points of Vulnerability
Ukraine Cyber-attacks and Blackouts
HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSFORMERS
Definition
High Voltage Transformers End-Users
Average Age of Installed Base
High Voltage Transformers in the Electric Grid
High Voltage Transformer Functions
Voltage Management in the U.S. Power System
Physical Characteristics of High Voltage Transformers
High Voltage Transformer Manufacture
High Voltage Transformer Cost
Transportation
Raw Materials Used in High Voltage Transformers
High Voltage Transformers Installed in the United States
Critical Nature of High Voltage Transformers
Physical Vulnerability of High Voltage Transformers
Targeting of High Voltage Transformers
Physical Security Measures for High Voltage Transformers
Sector Initiatives for High Voltage Transformer Security
Coordination and Information Sharing
Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council
Energy Sector Government Coordinating Council
Electricity Sector Information Sharing and Analysis Center
Critical Infrastructure Protection Committee
DOE’s Energy Sector-Specific Plan
ESCC’s Critical Infrastructure Strategic Roadmap
Transformer Equipment Programs
DHS Recovery Transformer Program (RecX)
EEI Spare Transformer Equipment Program
NERC Spare Equipment Database
Grid Security Exercises and Simulations
GridEx and GridEx II
FERC Electrically Significant Locations Study
High Voltage Transformer Security Standards
IEEE Substation Security Standard
NERC Physical Security Guidance
FERC Physical Security Best Practices
NERC Physical Security Regulations
Company-Specific Initiatives
Identifying Critical Transformers
Confidentiality of Critical Transformer Information
HIGH-IMPACT, LOW-FREQUENCY EVENTS
North America’s Most Critical Infrastructure
High-Impact, Low-Frequency Events
Understanding HILF Risk
Placing HILF Risk in Context
Geomagnetic and Electromagnetic Events
Geomagnetic Disturbances
Electromagnetic Weapons
SOLAR STORMS
Overview
Solar Cycles
Sunspot Cycles and Geomagnetic Storms
K-Index
Electric Power System Is Most Critical Infrastructure
EHV Infrastructure Growth
Increased Network Voltage
Increased Power System Vulnerability
Risk Hyperbole Not Helpful
Geo‐Magnetic Disturbances Sequence of Events
Geo‐Magnetically Induced Currents Chain of Events
Operations Impact of a Large Geo‐Magnetic Disturbance
Geo-Magnetic Storms Per Solar Cycle
Past Major GMD Impacts
Hydro Québec System 1989
Sweden and South Africa 2003
July 2012
May 1921
Carrington Event
Other Adverse Impacts
NERC Activities
NERC Actions and Initiatives
Spare Transformer Initiatives
Electric Power Research Institute Initiatives
Space Weather Infrastructure
Space Weather Prediction Center
Space Weather Forecasting Capabilities and Limitations
GIC Monitoring
EPRI Sunburst Network
Solar Shield
NERC GMD Alert Dissemination
SWPC Alerts, Warnings, Watches
NERC Alert Dissemination
U.S. Space Weather Strategy and National Space Weather Action Plan
Action Plan Structure
Metatech Studies
High Voltage Transformer Half-Cycle Saturation
Potential Impacts If the 1921 GMD Occurred Today
Impacts and System Vulnerabilities
IEEE Power & Energy Society Transformers Committee
ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE ATTACKS
Electromagnetic Pulses
Nuclear EMP
Non-Nuclear EMP
HEMP Weapons
E1 Pulse
E3 Pulse
E3 HEMP Environment
E3A Blast Wave
E3B Heave Effect
Low Altitude Bursts
Transformers and E3 HEMP Geomagnetically Induced Current
Evolving Vulnerability of Electric Power Grids
Potential Impacts to EHV Transformers Due to E3 Threats
New York Region E3 Event
Is the HEMP Threat Fiction
HEMP Weapons Proliferation
High Power Microwaves
Electromagnetic Bombs
Flux Compression Generator and Vircator Characteristics
E-Bomb Proliferation
EMP Weapons Threat Assessment
HEMP-Induced Blackout
EMP Hardening Techniques
Priorities for EMP Hardening
Development of EMP-Resistant Manufacturing Standards
U.S. HIGH AND EXTRA HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSFORMERS INSTALLED BASE
Extra High Voltage Total Transformers and Total Spares Installed
345 kV Installed Base
450-525 kV Installed Base
765 kV Installed Base
INVESTMENT TRENDS IN U.S. TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE
Role and Physical Characteristics of U.S. Transmission System
Historical and Projected Transmission Investments
Transmission vs. Other Electric Utility Investments
Circuit-Mile Additions
Replacing and Upgrading Aging Transmission
Renewables Additions to Meet RPS and the CPP Will Drive Transmission Investment
Transmission Investments Driven by Coal Retirements
Coal Retirements: Key Uncertainties Remain
Projected Transmission Investment Opportunities
Emerging Non-Incumbent Business Models
Recent High Voltage Transmission Projects
Outlook
U.S. HIGH AND EXTRA HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSFORMER MARKET
Market Segments
U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Production by Class and Voltage Rating
U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Production by Power Rating
U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Imports by Class and Voltage Rating
U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Imports by Power Rating
U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Exports by Class and Voltage Rating
U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Exports by Power Rating
U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Consumption by Class and Voltage Rating
U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Consumption by Power Rating
U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage Transformer Consumption
U.S. Electric Utility Extra High Voltage Transformer Consumption
U.S. Now Totally Dependent on Imports of Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformers
U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market Value ($ Million), Market Volume (Units), Power (MVA), Average Selling Price ($/Unit), Growth Rate: 2015-2020
U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market-Transmission vs. Generator Step-Up: 2015-2020
Competitive Environment
COMPANY PROFILES
ABB Ltd
Delta Star, Inc.
EFACEC Engenharia, S.A
Hyundai Power Transformers USA.
Mitsubishi Electric Power Products Inc.
Pennsylvania Transformer Technology Inc.
SPX Corporation
Virginia Transformer Corp.
TABLES
1.) United States Critical Infrastructure Sectors
2.) Sector-Specific Agencies and Critical Infrastructure Sectors
3.) U.S. Energy Sector Segments
4.) Major Industry Players in the U.S. Electric Industry by Class
5.) Transmission Voltage Classes
6.) K Index, G Scale, and Severity of Potential Power System Impacts
7.) EMP Weapons Threat Assessment
8.) Number of Transformers and Spare Transformers by Individual U.S. Utility Holding/Operating Companies Rated at 345 kV and Above (Units) and Market Share (%): 2014
9.) Number of Transformers and Spare Transformers by Substation at Individual U.S. Utility Holding Companies and Their Individual Operating Companies Rated at 345 kV and Above by Voltage Rating (Units): 2014
10.) AEP Transformers and Spare Transformers by Operating Companies and Substation Location Rated at 345 kV and Above by Voltage (Units): 2014
11.) Number of Transformers and Spare Transformers by Individual U.S. Utility Holding Companies Rated at 345 kV (Units) and Market Share (%): 2014
12.) Number of Transformers and Spare Transformers by Individual U.S. Utility Holding Companies Rated at 450-525kV (Units) and Market Share (%): 2014
13.) Number of Transformers and Spare Transformers (Units) by Individual U.S. Utility Holding Companies Rated at 765 kV (Units) and Market Share (%): 2014
14.) Distance of U.S. Transmission Lines by Voltages Over 200 kV (Miles): 2015
15.) U.S. Transmission Investment Driven by Renewables ($ Billion): 2015-2025
16.) Transmission Needs Driven by Coal Retirements ($ Billion): 2015-2025
17.) Non-incumbent Transmission Developers Business Models
18.) High Voltage Transmission Projects by Utility: 2015
19.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Production by Class (Low/Medium Voltage, High Voltage, Extra High Voltage) and Voltage Rating ($ Million): 2015
20.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Production by Power Rating ($ Million): 2015
21.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Imports by Class and Voltage Rating ($ Million): 2015
22.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Imports by Power Rating ($ Million): 2015
23.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Exports by Class and Voltage Rating ($ Million): 2015
24.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Exports by Power Rating ($ Million): 2015
25.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Consumption by Class and Voltage Rating ($ Million): 2015
26.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Consumption by Power Rating ($ Million): 2015
27.) U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage Transformer Consumption ($ Million): 2015
28.) U.S. Electric Utility Extra High Voltage Transformer Consumption ($ Million): 2015
29.) U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market Value ($ Million), Market Volume (Units), Market Power (MVA), Average Selling Price ($/Unit): 2015
30). U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market Value ($ Million), Market Volume (Units), Market Power (MVA), Average Selling Price ($/Unit): 2020
31.) U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market Value ($ Million), Market Volume (Units), Market Power (MVA), Average Selling Price ($/Unit) Growth Rate: 2015-2020
32.) U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market ($ Million)-Transmission vs. Step-Up: 2015-2020
33.) U.S. High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Suppliers Sales ($ Million) and Market Shares (%): 2015
FIGURES
1.) Evolving Threats to U.S. Critical Infrastructure
2.) Sector and Cross-Sector Coordinating Structures
3.) U.S. Protective Security Advisor Locations by Region, State, City and Type
4.) Overview of the U.S. Electric Power System and Control Communications
5.) U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector (Quadrillion Btu): 2014
6.) North America Power Grids
7.) NERC Interconnections
8.) U.S. Electrical Transmission Network Map by Voltage and Substations
9.) U.S. Electric Power Grid Representation: Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Transformers
10.) 345 kV Transformer Installation
11.) Core-Type High Voltage Transformer Showing Major Internal Components
12.) High Voltage Transformer Procurement Process and Estimated Lead Times by Stage
13.) Transport of a High Voltage Transformer
14.) Schnabel Car Transporting a High Voltage Transformer
15.) 400 Years of Sunspot Observations
16.) Sunspot Cycles and the Occurrence and Intensity (Ap index) of Large Geomagnetic Storms
17.) Growth of U.S. High Voltage Transmission Lines (Miles x 1000) vs. Electric Energy Usage (Billion kWh): 1950-2000
18.) U.S. High Voltage Transmission Network by Voltage Level (345kV, 500kV, 765kV) and State
19.) Transmission Line Resistance (Ohms/km) by kV Rating in the U.S.
20.) Coronal Mass Ejections Observed Using Coronagraphs on NASA SOHO and STEREO Spacecraft
21.) Solar Electromagnetic Radiation and Energetic Particles Impact Earth’s Magnetosphere and Ionosphere, Causing Space Weather Disturbances
22.) Geo‐Magnetic Effects on Electric Power Grids
23.) SWPC information Dissemination
24.) One Hundred Year Geomagnetic Storm G50 Degrees Geomagnetic Disturbance Scenario
25.) Map Showing the At-Risk EHV Transformer Capacity by State for 50 Degree Geomagnetic Latitude Disturbance Scenario
26.) Schematic of Various Phases of HEMP
27.) Schematic of E3B Heave Phenomenology
28.) Transformer MVAR Increase vs. GIC for 500kV Single Phase
and 3 Phase, 3 Legged Core Form
29.) Transformer MVAR Increase vs. GIC for 345kV, 500kV and 765kV Transformers
30.) Installed Base Estimates of U.S. 345kV Transformers: Single Phase vs. 3 Phase (%)
31.) Installed Base Estimates of U.S. 500kV transformers: Single Phase vs. 3 Phase (%)
32.) Installed Base Estimates of U.S. 765kV transformers: Single Phase vs. 3 Phase (%)
33.) New York Region: Location of Transformers at Risk for GIC of 200 Amps or Greater Per Phase
34.) NY Region MVA Ratios of At Risk Transformers by Winding Types/Voltages (%)
35.) U.S. Transmission Lines Greater Than 200 kV and Ownership by Type of Entity (%): 2015
36.) U.S Transmission Investment by Investor-Owned Utilities and Stand-Alone Transmission Companies ($ Billion): 2009-2018
37.) U.S. Transmission vs. Other Electric Utility Investment by Type ($ Billion): 2012-2013
38.) Investor-Owned Utility Capital Expenditures by Type ($ Billion): 2014-2017
39.) U.S. Circuit-Mile Additions (Thousand Miles): 1960-2017
40.) Historical and Projected Circuit Miles Replaced/Upgraded and Total Projected Investment by Age ($ Million): 1990-2040
41.) Forecast U.S. Transmission Investment and Variables Per Decade Through 2030 ($ Billion)

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