Uganda Agribusiness Report Q1 2013Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 21, 2012 - 61 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractBMI View: The Ugandan coffee sector remains on track for moderate growth over the short term,although we see potential for a slowdown over the longer term owing to our expectation of lower averageprices in 2013. Strong yields are likely to enable the sector to maintain production growth even with thepossibility that farmers will have less to spend on fertilisers. Like the rest of Southern Africa, thecountry’s food security situation is expected to remain fairly stable through the rest of 2012 as supplycomes online from the country’s main corn harvest. Although we expect local prices to remain elevatedby historical standards, we believe the country will remain a net corn importer over the long term,although it will not challenge the supremacy of Zambia and South Africa in the export market.Key Views Coffee production growth to 2016/17: 13.0% to 3.8mn tonnes. The Uganda CoffeeProduction Campaign has developed new disease-resistant coffee trees; this is expected to boostyields over our forecast period. Also, high coffee prices will encourage greater fertiliser use. Corn consumption growth to 2016: 15.9% to 1.4mn tonnes. Growth in demand will comefrom the country’s livestock sector, which is growing in response to higher demand. Overall,corn consumption will largely be guided by changes in population. 2013 real GDP growth: 6.8% (down from 4.8% in 2012; predicted to average 7.2% from 2012to 2017). Consumer price inflation: 18.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) annual average in 2012 (up from18.6% y-o-y in 2011). Industry Outlook We continue to forecast a slight increase in Ugandan corn production in 2012/13, as good rainfall hasimproved growing conditions. The country’s corn harvest occurs at different times depending on thelocation but is largely complete by the end of October. Generally speaking, crop production prospects arefavourable, particularly in the Eastern part of the country. In Central and Northern regions, traditionalrains during the Q113 period were delayed by almost a month, forcing some harvest delays. Ultimately,the delays are expected to have a minimal impact on production. The strong grain output has led tomoderating food prices in Uganda, particularly in large cities. Prices were elevated towards the middle ofthe calendar year, reaching close to US$400/tonne for corn in July 2012, before moderating as supplyfrom the southern (main harvest) came online. Corn prices have fallen considerably on a y-o-y basis,trading almost 30% below Q311 levels. We expect the country’s food security to remain broadly stable over the coming months, in line withregional trends and in spite of high prices. Unlike other countries in the region (Kenya in particular),Uganda generally runs a net corn surplus, a trend we expect to continue in the coming months aseconomic growth leads to diversifying diets and high global prices encourage plantings. Indeed, at850,000 hectares, Uganda corn plantings remain at the highest levels on record due to high corn prices.The strong production in 2012/13 is also expected to lift ending stocks to 118,000 tonnes in 2012/13,close to historical highs. Get full details about this report >> |
|
|
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||
|
|
On the WEB
1/17/2013 - 32