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Pakistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 23, 2009 - 83 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.47% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.79% of its supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.44mn b/d in 2009. It should average 25.93mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.50mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.59mn b/d by 2014. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d of oil. This total had risen to an estimated 16.94mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.41mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014, the only net exporter will be Malaysia In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 582bcm is targeted for 2014.Production of an estimated 378bcm in 2009 should reach 509bcm in 2014, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 81bcm in 2009 to 73bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Pakistan’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 7.95%, while its share of production is put at 9.66%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.69%, with the country accounting for 8.26% of supply. For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond. For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. Pakistan’s real GDP growth in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 2.0%, down from 4.1% in 2008. In 2010- 2014, average annual growth is put at 3.4%. Several state-controlled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation and already work with international oil companies (IOCs) in the upstream segment. We foresee oil and gas liquids production of no more than 68,000b/d by 2014, with the country able to pump an estimated 80,000b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by up to 3.5% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 427,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 359,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is set to rise from an estimated 36.5bcm in 2009 to 44.7bcm by 2014, requiring imports of at least 2.7bcm. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Pakistan oil production of 33.33%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 50,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 33.06%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 495,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 36.5bcm in 2009 to a possible 47.0bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 53.19%, this requires imports rising to 8.9bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections. Pakistan now ranks seventh, between the Philippines and Thailand, in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average output growth outlook and falling state involvement. The country sits four points ahead of Thailand, and should be able to keep it at bay over the medium term. Pakistan now ranks equal ninth, alongside Vietnam, in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its refinery capacity expansion plans, average oil and gas demand growth outlook and low level of retail site intensity. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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