Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2008

Published by: Simba Information - Reports

Published: Sep. 10, 2007 - 152 Pages

Table of Contents

• Introduction
  

Chapter 2: Trends in Children’s Book Publishing

• Introduction
  
• The Paradigm Shift of Author Promotion
  
• The Rise of Children’s Series
  
• Series Case Study: Harry Potter
  
• Fantasy Still the Top Category
  
• Biggest Publishers, Biggest Categories
  
• Motion Picture Tie-Ins
  
• The Volatility of Licensed Publishing
  
• Celebrity Author Activity Still 98% Attention, 2% Sales
  
• Teen Market Still Hot
  
  
• Table 2.1: Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2003-2008
  
• Table 2.2: New York Times/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers (July 2006 - June 2007)
  
• Table 2.3: Scholastic Revenue, FY2000 - FY2007
  
• Table 2.4: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic
  
• Table 2.5: Leading Children’s Book Categories, July 2006 - June 2007
  
• Table 2.6: Top 20 Children’s Books (July 2006 - June 2007)
  
• Table 2.7: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, July 2006 - June 2007
  
• Table 2.8: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, July 2005 - June 2006
  
• Table 2.9: New York Times Bestsellers Supported by Movie Tie-Ins, 2002-2006
  
• Table 2.10: New York Times Performance of Louis Sachar’s Holes, 2001-2005
  

Chapter 3: New York Times Bestseller Data

• Introduction
  
• The Addition of the Series Books List
  
• 2006 New York Times Performance: Children’s Books
  
• HarperCollins
  
• Random House
  
• Penguin Group USA
  
• Scholastic
  
• Hachette
  
  
• Table 3.1: Leading Publishers, New York Times Bestseller Data, 2002-2006
  
• Table 3.2: Weeks per Title Average of Leading Publishers on New York Times Children’s Bestseller Lists
  
• Table 3.3: New York Times Bestselling Children’s Book Publishers by Weeks per Title Average, 2005
  
• Table 3.4: New York Times Bestselling Children’s Book Publishers by Weeks per Title Average, 2006
  
• Table 3.5: New York Times Children’s Bestseller List Publishers, 2001-2006
  
• Table 3.6: Leading New York Times Bestselling Children’s Book Publishers,
  2006 vs. 2005
  
• Table 3.7: New York Times No. 1 Children’s Paperback Bestsellers by Longevity, 2006
  
• Table 3.8: New York Times No. 1 Children’s Chapter Bestsellers by Longevity, 2006
  
• Table 3.9: New York Times No. 1 Children’s Picture Bestsellers by Longevity, 2006
  
• Table 3.10: New York Times Bestselling Children’s Book Publishers, by Titles
  and Weeks, 2006
  

Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts

• Introduction
  
• Revenue Trends
  
• Valuation Trends
  
• Leading Children’s Publishers
  
• Candlewick
  
• Disney Publishing Worldwide
  
• Hachette/Little, Brown BFYR
  
• HarperCollins
  
• Holtzbrinck
  
• Houghton Mifflin/Harcourt
  
• Penguin Group (USA)
  
• Random House
  
• Scholastic
  
• Simon & Schuster
  
• Size of the Children’s Publishing Market
  
• Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue
  
• Leading Children’s Publishers by Number of Titles Published
  
• Leading Young Adult Publishers by Number of Titles Published
  
• Leading Juvenile Publishers by Number of Juvenile Fiction Books
  
• Leading Publishers by Number of Juvenile/ Young Adult Graphic Novels
  
  
• Table 4.1: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2005-2009P
  
• Table 4.2: Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue, 2005-2009P
  
• Table 4.3: Market Share by Number of Juvenile Titles Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 4.4: Number of Juvenile Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2002-2007
  
• Table 4.5: Market Share by Number of YA Titles Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 4.6: Number of YA Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2002-2007
  
• Table 4.7: Number of Juvenile Fiction Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2002-2007
  
• Table 4.8: Market Share of Juvenile Fiction by Titles Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 4.9: Market Share of Juvenile Graphic Novels by Titles Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 4.10: Number of Juvenile Graphic Novels Published, Top 10 Publishers,
  2002-2007
  
• Table 4.11: Market Share of YA Graphic Novels by Titles Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 4.12: Number of YA Graphic Novels Published, by Top 10 Publishers, 2002-2007
  

Chapter 5: Title Output Trends

• Introduction
  
• Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released
  
• Graphic Novels
  
• Religious Children’s/YA Books
  
• Fantasy Books
  
• Notes on Vampires
  
• Science Fiction Children’s/YA Books
  
• Children’s and YA Titles: Format Trends
  
• E-books and Downloadable Audio
  
• Other Formats and Trends
  
  
• Table 5.1: New Children’s Titles and Young Adult Titles vs. All New Titles Released,
  2002-2006
  
• Table 5.2: Total Juvenile Graphic Novels Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 5.3: Total Graphic Novels Published for Young Adults, 2002-2007
  
• Table 5.4: Total Juvenile Religious Titles Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 5.5: Total YA Religious Titles Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 5.6: New YA Fantasy Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2002-2006
  
• Table 5.7: New Children’s Fantasy Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2002-2006
  
• Table 5.8: New Children’s Sci-Fi Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2002-2006
  
• Table 5.9: New YA Sci-Fi Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2002-2006
  
• Table 5.10: Total Juvenile and YA Hardcover Titles Published, 2002-2006
  
• Table 5.11: Total Juvenile and YA Softcover Titles Published, 2002-2006
  
• Table 5.12: Total Mass Market Juvenile and YA Titles Published, 2002-2006
  
• Table 5.13: Total Juvenile/YA Compact Discs Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 5.14: Total Juvenile/YA Cassette Tapes Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 5.15: Total Juvenile E-books Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 5.16: Total YA E-books Published, 2002-2007
  
• Table 5.17: All Juvenile Books Published, by Format, 2002-2007
  

Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales

• Introduction
  
• Independent Bookstores and Children’s Books
  
• Mass Merchandisers and Children’s Book Retailing
  
• The Big Three Chains
  
• Physical Store Locations
  
• The Influence of Bookstores on Kids’ Reading Habits
  
• New Retail Book Sales Outlets Continue Emerging
  
• Online Bookselling
  
• Amazon.com
  
• Barnes & Noble.com
  
• Borders.com
  
• Books-A-Million.com
  
• Direct-to-Consumer Sales
  
• Book Clubs, Fairs and Other Non-Retail Sales
  
  
• Table 6.1: Why Was Business Up in 2006?
  
• Table 6.2: How Many Copies Did You Sell of Harry Potter No. 7 Compared to
  
• Book No. 6?
  
• Table 6.3: What % of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Buyers Bought Another Book at the Same Time?
  
• Table 6.4: How Has Overall Traffic at Your Store Changed Over the Last Five Years?
  
• Table 6.5: Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store?
  
• Table 6.6: Average Children’s/YA Book Buyer Compared to 4-5 Years Ago
  
• Table 6.7: How Has Your Children’s/YA Business Been Trending Over the Past Three Years?
  
• Table 6.8: Big Three vs. Big Box (Physical Store Locations)
  
• Table 6.9: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Stores, 2007
  
• Table 6.10: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, 2003-2006
  
• Table 6.11: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2003-2006
  
• Table 6.12: Big Three Bookstore Chains’ Operating Performance, 2002-2006
  
• Table 6.13: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2002-2006
  
• Table 6.14: Why Did You Buy This Book?
  
• Table 6.15: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2006
  

Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions

• Conclusions
  
• Recommendations
  
  
• Table 7.1: Children’s Book Sales, 2005-2009P
  

Profiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers

• Candlewick Press
  
• Disney Publishing Worldwide
  
• Hachette Book Group
  
• HarperCollins
  
• Holtzbrinck
  
• Houghton Mifflin
  
• Penguin Group
  
• Random House
  
• Scholastic
  
• Simon & Schuster
  

Abstract

This report provides an exclusive, inside view of the market for children’s books, along with Simba’s trademark analysis of market opportunities and pitfalls. It offers high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on publishing houses, and the entire retail landscape, from independent book stores to online outlets to Big Box stores.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2008 contains statistics and analysis found nowhere else:

• Six-year historical analysis of children’s bestseller lists from the New York Times, with weeks per title average for dozens.
• Expanded analysis of the most vital facet of children’s publishing: series books. Simba’s series case study of Harry Potter has been expanded to include Deathly Hallows data and contains eight years of revenue data from the “Harry Potter” series.
• Exclusive analysis of the four most recent quarters of children’s book bestsellers drawn from USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists with breakdowns of top-performing authors and imprints with a comprehensive category ranking of what’s selling and what’s not in children’s books.
• Results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country rating different books and genres; as well as info on buyer profiles and behaviors.

The report can be used to evaluate growth potential, understand trends affecting the industry, size the competition, review potential partner or acquisition profiles, examine revenue rankings and market forecasts, benchmark performance, and plan short- and long-term growth strategies.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2008 is an essential tool for publishing executives, M&A advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand the business strategies driving the children’s trade book publishing industry.

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