Future of the Uzbek Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021
Summary
As one of the emerging powers, as well as one of the largest and strongest performing economies in Central Asia, Uzbekistan displays a strong potential for growth compared to its neighbouring nations. While the country invested US$9.7 billion cumulatively over the period 2012–2016, the defense budget is expected to increase to US$11.8 billion cumulatively in the forecast period. This growth is stimulated by the government’s initiatives to procure new defense systems and combat the rising threat of domestic terrorism.
Key Findings
During 2012–2016, Uzbek defense expenditure registered a growth rate of 3.57%, increasing from US$1.8 billion in 2012 to US$2.1 billion in 2016
Military expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 4.25% during 2017–2021, to value US$2.6 billion in 2021
Demand for equipment is mainly expected to revolve around helicopter, aircraft, armored vehicle, and surveillance equipment during 2017–2021
Synopsis
Strategic Defence Intelligence's report - Future of the Uzbek Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021 offers detailed analysis of the industry with market size forecasts from 2017–2021. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand in the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants. In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:
Defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the defense industry during 2017–2021, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
Porter’s Five Force analysis of the defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities from 2016 to 2026
Competitive landscape and strategic insights: Including an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis
Reasons To Buy
Identify and track the global defense market and make regional comparisons to effectively target new revenue streams
Understand the importance of being led by the defense ministries in the military procurement market and define your strategies with insight on what your customers really want by analyzing recent orders, technical specifications, and the country’s expected investment pattern during 2017–2021
Make correct business decisions based on detailed analysis of the defense industry from 2017–2021,which includes the total competitive landscape of the sector with detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers along with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis
Determine prospective investment areas by gaining an in-depth understanding of the industry in terms of market opportunities
Channel resources by identifying various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues across different sectors during 2017–2021
- 1. Introduction
- 1.1. What is this Report About?
- 1.2. Definitions
- 1.3. Summary Methodology
- 1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
- 1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
- 2. Executive Summary
- 3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
- 3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
- 3.1.1. Uzbek annual defense expenditure to reach US$2.6 billion by 2021
- 3.1.2. Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and counter-terrorism to drive Uzbekistan’s defense expenditure
- 3.1.3. The country’s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 2.84% on average over the forecast period
- 3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 20
- 3.2.1. Share of capital expenditure to increase over the forecast period
- 3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to increase during the forecast period
- 3.2.3. Uzbek revenue expenditure expected to record a CAGR of 3.92% over the forecast period
- 3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
- 3.3. Key Trends and Drivers in the Homeland Security Market 32
- 3.3.1. Human trafficking and drug smuggling form the major components of homeland security expenditure
- 3.3.2. Uzbekistan is at low risk from external and internal threats
- 3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
- 3.4.1. Uzbek defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.25% over the forecast period
- 3.4.2. Uzbekistan’s military expenditure is low when compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure
- 3.4.3. Uzbekistan allocates a high percentage of GDP to defense
- 3.4.4. Uzbekistan faces low risk of terrorist attack
- 3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
- 4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
- 5. Industry Dynamics
- 5.1. Five Forces Analysis
- 5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: medium to high
- 5.1.2. Bargaining power of the buyer: low to medium
- 5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
- 5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium
- 5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium
- 6. Market Entry Strategy
- 6.1. Market Regulation
- 6.1.1. Uzbekistan does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
- 6.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in defense sector not disclosed by the government
- 6.2. Market Entry Route
- 6.2.1. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
- 6.2.2. Joint venture and license manufacturing agreements provide an attractive market entry route
- 6.3. Key Challenges
- 6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency create a roadblock for foreign companies
- 6.3.2. Domination of Russian companies poses a challenge to other foreign firms
- 7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
- 7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 47
- 7.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Uzbekistan
- 7.2. Key Companies
- 7.2.1. Airbus Helicopters: overview
- 7.2.2. Airbus Helicopters: products and services
- 7.2.3. Airbus Helicopters: recent contract wins
- 8. Business Environment and Country Risk
- 8.1. Economic Performance
- 8.1.1. GDP Per Capita
- 8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices
- 8.1.3. Exports of goods and services
- 8.1.4. Imports of goods and services
- 8.1.5. Local Currency Unit per USD
- 8.2. Minerals 54
- 8.2.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
- 9. Appendix
- 9.1. About SDI
- 9.2. Disclaimer
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (US$ billions), 2012–2016
- Table 2: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (US$ billions), 2017–2021
- Table 3: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2012–2016
- Table 4: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2017–2021
- Table 5: Uzbek GDP Growth vs
- Table 6: Uzbek GDP Growth vs
- Table 7: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012–2016
- Table 8: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017–2021
- Table 9: Uzbek Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2012–2016
- Table 10: Uzbek Defense Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2017–2021
- Table 11: Uzbek Defense Capital Expenditure (UZS Billion), 2012–2016
- Table 12: Uzbek Defense Capital Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2017–2021
- Table 13: Uzbek Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012–2016
- Table 14: Uzbek Defense Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2017–2021
- Table 15: Uzbek Defense Revenue Expenditure (UZS Billion), 2012–2016
- Table 16: Uzbek Defense Revenue Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2017–2021
- Table 17: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012–2016
- Table 18: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2017–2021
- Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2012–2016 vs
- Table 20: SDI Terrorism Index
- Table 21: Airbus Helicopters – Product Focus
- Table 22: Airbus Helicopters –Recent Contract Wins
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (US$ billions), 2012–2016
- Figure 2: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (US$ billions), 2017–2021
- Figure 3: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2012–2016
- Figure 4: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2017–2021
- Figure 5: Uzbek GDP Growth vs
- Figure 6: Uzbek GDP Growth vs
- Figure 7: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012–2016
- Figure 8: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017–2021
- Figure 9: Uzbek Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion),2012–2016
- Figure 10: Uzbek Defense Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2017–2021
- Figure 11: Uzbek Defense Capital Expenditure (UZS billion), 2012–2016
- Figure 12: Uzbek Defense Capital Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2017–2021
- Figure 13: Uzbek Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012–2016
- Figure 14: Uzbek Defense Revenue Budget Allocation(US$ billion), 2017–2021
- Figure 15: Uzbek Defense Revenue Expenditure (UZS billion), 2012–2016
- Figure 16: Uzbek Defense Revenue Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2017–2021
- Figure 17: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012–2016
- Figure 18: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2017–2021
- Figure 19: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016
- Figure 20: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2012–2016 vs
- Figure 21: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2016 and 2021
- Figure 22: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2016
- Figure 23: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016
- Figure 24: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
- Figure 25: Uzbek GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015–2024
- Figure 26: Uzbek GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015–2024
- Figure 27: Uzbek Exports of Goods and Services (LCU), 2002–2011
- Figure 28: Uzbek Imports of goods and services (LCU), 2005–2014
- Figure 29: Local Currency per US$, 2015–2024
- Figure 30: Uzbek Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2005–2014
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