Future of the Libyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023
Summary
Libyan defense industry, valued at over US$3Billion in 2019, is anticipated to record a CAGR of more than 1.5% over the forecast period, to reach about US$3.4 Billion in 2023. Libya is focusing on reconstructing and strengthening its security forces after the 2011 revolution, during which the people successfully overthrew one of the longest dictatorial regimes which spanned over four decades. This has resulted in a substantial increase initially in the military expenditure of the country.
Libyan capital expenditure is expected to increase from over US$550 million in 2019 to about US$580 million in 2023, growing at a CAGR of just over 1.4%. The Libyan government is expected to procure multi-role and fighter aircraft, transport aircraft and helicopters, personnel weapons, armored vehicles, body armor & personnel protection equipment radar, and imaging systems, and other surveillance equipment. Business opportunities will arise in the form of security platforms as the country looks to strengthen its borders.
One of the major security challenges Libya faces is its 2000km Mediterranean coastline. Threats from six neighboring African countries are ever present and organized crime is prevalent in the border region. The porousness of Libya’s border and its susceptibility to smuggling along, with the circulation of criminals, led to high spending on the country’s homeland security (HLS).
The report ""Future of the Libyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023"" provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.
In particular, this report provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- The Libya defense industry market size and drivers: Detailed analysis of the Libya defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: Insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Import and Export Dynamics: Analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities: List of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: Analysis of the competitive landscape of the Libyan defense industry.
Companies mentioned in this report: Lockheed Martin, Leonardo S.p.A. and KBP Instrument Design Bureau
Scope
- The Libyan defense industry, valued at US$3.2 billion in 2019, is anticipated to record a CAGR of 1.56% over the forecast period, to reach US$3.4 billion in 2023.
- Libya is focusing on reconstructing and strengthening its security forces after the 2011 revolution, during which the people successfully overthrew one of the longest dictatorial regimes which spanned over four decades.
- This has resulted in a substantial increase initially in the military expenditure of the country.
Reasons to buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Libyan defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Libyan defense industry covering sections including demand drivers,Key Trends,and latest industry contracts
- 1. Introduction
- 1.1. What is this Report About?
- 1.2. Definitions
- 1.3. Summary Methodology
- 1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
- 2. Executive Summary
- 3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
- 3.1. Current Market Scenario
- 3.1.1. Primary threat perception
- 3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy
- 3.1.3. Military Fleet Size
- 3.1.4. Procurement Programs
- 3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects
- 3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances
- 3.1.7. Libyan defense budget anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 1.56% during 2019-2023
- 3.1.8. Rebuilding the armed forces and replacing aging equipment
- 3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
- 3.2.1. The majority of Libya’s defense budget is allocated to revenue expenditure
- 3.2.2. Capital expenditure set to rise at a forecast-period CAGR of 1.41%
- 3.2.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to rise over the forecast period
- 3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure set to increase over the forecast period
- 3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
- 3.3.1. Political stalemate, terrorism, border security, and internal disputes
- 3.3.2. Libya considered to be highly effected by terrorism
- 3.3.3. Libya faces high level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations
- 3.3.4. Libya faces significant threat from terrorists
- 3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
- 3.4.1. Libyan defense budget anticipated to register growth over the period 2019-2023
- 3.4.2. Libyan defense expenditure is small compared to the leading spenders
- 3.4.3. Libya spent 4% of its GDP on defense in 2018
- 3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
- 3.5.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023
- 3.5.2. Transport Helicopters
- 3.5.3. Personnel Weapons
- 3.5.4. Soft Armor
- 4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
- 4.1. Import Market Dynamics
- 4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to increase during the forecast period
- 4.1.2. Russia was the leading supplier of arms to Libya during 2012-2016
- 4.1.3. Armored vehicles to compromise the majority of Libyan arms imports
- 4.2. Export Market Dynamics
- 4.2.1. Libyan defense exports market is negligible
- 5. Industry Dynamics
- 5.1. Five Forces Analysis
- 5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: high
- 5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low
- 5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
- 5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
- 5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium
- 6. Market Entry Strategy
- 6.1. Market Regulation
- 6.1.1. Arms Embargo in Libya
- 6.1.2. Libya has not disclosed any offset policy
- 6.2. Market Entry Route
- 6.2.1. Budgeting Process
- 6.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process
- 6.2.3. Foreign Military Sale (FMS) is the preferred entry route
- 6.3. Key Challenges
- 6.3.1. Underdeveloped industry and internal instability discouraging foreign participation
- 6.3.2. Unemployment and scarcity of skilled labor
- 7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
- 7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
- 7.2. Key Foreign Companies
- 7.2.1. Lockheed Martin: overview
- 7.2.2. Lockheed Martin: products and services
- 7.2.3. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
- 7.2.4. Lockheed Martin: alliances
- 7.2.5. Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins
- 7.2.6. Lockheed Martin Corp.: financial analysis
- 7.2.7. Leonardo S.p.A: overview
- 7.2.8. Leonardo S.p.A: products and services
- 7.2.9. Leonardo S.p.A: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
- 7.2.10. Leonardo S.p.A: alliances
- 7.2.11. Leonardo S.p.A: recent contract wins
- 7.2.12. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - overview
- 7.2.13. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - major products and services
- 7.2.14. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
- 7.2.15. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent contract wins
- 8. Business Environment and Country Risk
- 8.1. Economic Performance
- 8.1.1. GDP per capita at constant prices
- 8.1.2. GDP at current prices (US$ Billion)
- 8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (LCU bn)
- 8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion)
- 8.1.5. LCU per US$ (period average)
- 8.1.6. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP
- 8.1.7. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP
- 8.1.8. Services Imports as a percentage of GDP
- 8.1.9. Service Exports as a percentage of GDP
- 8.1.10. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billions)
- 8.1.11. Foreign direct investment, as Percentage of GDP
- 8.1.12. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion)
- 9. Appendix
- 9.1. About SDI
- 9.2. Disclaimer
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Libyan Army Strength
- Table 2: Libyan Navy Strength
- Table 3: Libyan Air Force Strength
- Table 4: Top Libyan Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023
- Table 5: Libyan Defense Expenditure (LYD Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023
- Table 6: Libyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
- Table 7: Libyan - Defense Capital Expenditure (LYD Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023
- Table 8: Libyan - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023
- Table 9: Libyan per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
- Table 10: Terrorism Index, 2018
- Table 11: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023
- Table 12: Top 10 Libyan Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023
- Table 13: Libyan Budget Formation Timetable:
- Table 14: Competitive Landscape of the Libyan Defense Industry
- Table 15: Lockheed Martin - product focus
- Table 16: Lockheed Martin - Alliances
- Table 17: Lockheed Martin - Recent Contract Wins
- Table 18: Leonardo S.p.A - Product Focus
- Table 19: Leonardo S.p.A - Alliances
- Table 20: Leonardo S.p.A - Recent Contract Wins
- Table 21: KBP Instrument Design Bureau - Major Products and Services
- Table 22: KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent contract wins
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Libyan Defense Expenditure (LYD Billion), 2014-2023
- Figure 2: Libyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023
- Figure 3: Libyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
- Figure 4: Libyan - Defense Capital Expenditure (LYD Million), 2014-2023
- Figure 5: Libyan - Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2014-2023
- Figure 6: Libyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023
- Figure 7: Libyan per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
- Figure 8: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018
- Figure 9: Terrorism Index, 2018
- Figure 10: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023
- Figure 11: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023
- Figure 12: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP - 2018
- Figure 13: Transport Helicopter Market (US$ Million), 2018-2023
- Figure 14: Personal Weapons Market (US$ Million), 2018-2023
- Figure 15: Soft Armor Market (US$ Million), 2018-2023
- Figure 16: Libyan Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2012-2016
- Figure 17: Libyan Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016
- Figure 18: Libyan Defense Imports by Category, 2012-2016
- Figure 19: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
- Figure 20: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2012-2016
- Figure 21: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2012-2016
- Figure 22: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2012-2016
- Figure 23: Libyan GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025
- Figure 24: Libyan GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025
- Figure 25: Libyan Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
- Figure 26: Libyan Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
- Figure 27: Libya- LCU per US$ (period average), 2015-2024
- Figure 28: Libya- Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2013
- Figure 29: Libya- Goods imports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2013
- Figure 30: Libyan Services Imports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2013
- Figure 31: Libyan Service Exports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2013
- Figure 32: Libya- Foreign Direct Investment, Net (BoP, current US$ billion), 2005-2013
- Figure 33: Libya- Foreign Direct Investment, as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
- Figure 34: Libyan Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU billion), 2005-2014
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