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U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020

U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020 provides trend-forward analysis of consumer payment usage, behavior and preferences; and shifts in usage, behavior and preferences over time. The report focuses on major consumer payment instruments and methods: cash, check debit cards, prepaid cards, credit cards, electronic/ACH, online and mobile payments and P2P and money transfers. Analysis is weighted toward market sizing and forecasting and trended survey analysis.


  • Executive Summary
    • Report scope
    • Report summary
      • U.S. payments value & volume: market size and forecast
      • U.S. consumer payments value & volume: market size and forecast
      • Consumer payment card market size
      • Key trends and observations
    • Consumer Credit Card Payments
      • Consumer general-purpose credit card payment market size
      • Credit card usage forecast
      • A credit-based payment tool lagging only cash and debit in usage
      • Balances outstanding and number of cards trend downward
      • Subprime borrowers no longer a factor
      • Usage trends
      • Demographic trends
      • Usage trends over time
      • Usage frequency trends over time
      • Number of cards in wallet: trends over time
    • Consumer Debit and Prepaid Card Payments
      • Debit card usage forecast
      • Debit card usage trends
      • Demographic trends
      • Usage trends over time
      • 2010-2016 usage trends by demographic
      • Cash and purchase usage and usage frequency trends
      • Prepaid card usage trends
    • ACH Payments
      • ACH payments market size
      • ACH consumer payment market size
      • Online banking bill payment usage growth trends
      • Consumer bank account number payment usage growth trends
    • Check Payments
      • Check payments market size
      • Consumer check payments
    • Cash Payments
      • U.S. consumer cash payment value & volume: market size & forecast
      • Carrying cash
      • Cash withdrawal amounts
      • In important ways, cash remains king
      • Cash takes a hit but remains resilient
      • Small value payments
      • Cash less likely to be preferred payment instrument
      • Degree of using cash to pay for goods and services
      • Reasons for choosing cash over payment cards
      • Cash preferences: paying for purchases and bills
      • Influence of cash preference on payment cards, by type
      • Influence of cash preference on banking relationship and creditworthiness
    • Online and Mobile Payments
      • Remote payment growth rate twice the in-person payment rate
      • Online purchasing usage penetration growth slowing down
      • Online and mobile purchase frequency trends
      • Credit cards the online payment method of choice; PayPal firmly established
      • Phone/mail payment usage methods see check declines
      • Bill payment methods used: trends over time
      • Form of payment used to pay bills: trends over time
      • Mobile wallet funding method
      • Mobile wallet payment entry method
    • P2P and money transfer
      • P2P and money transfer usage methods: trends over time
      • Bank-driven P2P and Instant P2P payment: usage and interest
  • Market Size and Forecast
    • U.S. payments value & volume: market size and forecast
      • Payments value and volume: 2012-2020
        • Table U.S. Payments Value, 2012-2020
        • Table U.S. Payments Value: CAGR and Total Growth Rate, 2012-2015 and 2015-2010
        • Table U.S. Payments Volume, 2012-2020
        • Table U.S. Payments Volume: CAGR and Total Growth Rate, 2012-2015 and 2015-2010
    • U.S. consumer payments value & volume: market size and forecast
      • Consumer payments value and volume: 2012-2020
        • Table Consumer Payments Value, by Payment Instrument, 2012-2016
        • Table Consumer Payments Value, by Payment Instrument, 2016-2020
        • Table Consumer Payments Volume, by Payment Instrument, 2012-2016
        • Table Consumer Payments Volume, by Payment Instrument, 2016-2020
    • Consumer payment card market size
      • Consumer general-purpose card payment value: 2012-2016
      • Consumer payment value by card type
        • Table Consumer General-Purpose Card Payment Value: Credit vs. Debit/Prepaid, 2012-2016
      • Consumer payment value by card association
        • Table Consumer General-Purpose Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
    • Key trends and observations
      • eCommerce & Mobile
        • Table U.S. Retail Sales: Total and eCommerce, 2007-2016
        • Table U.S. Retail Sales Forecast: Total and eCommerce, 2016-20
      • Traditional accounts remain bedrock
        • Table Checking and Savings Account Ownership, 2007-2016
      • Traditional and emerging accounts and payment instruments blurring
        • Table Traditional and Emerging Accounts and Payment Instruments: Usage by Type and Demographic, 2016
      • Large-value payments
  • Consumer Credit Card Payments
    • Consumer general-purpose credit card payment market size
      • Table Consumer General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
      • Visa takes share; American Express lags
        • Table Consumer General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
    • Credit card usage forecast
      • Table Active General-Purpose Credit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2007-2016
      • Table Active General-Purpose Credit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2016-2020
    • Credit card trends
      • A credit-based payment tool lagging only cash and debit in usage
        • Table Consumer Credit Card Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
      • Balances outstanding and number of cards trend downward
        • Table Credit Cards: Cards Outstanding, Users, and Balances, 2008 vs. 2016
        • Table American Express Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly American Express Bill Paid, 2007-2016
        • Table Discover Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly Discover Bill Paid, 2007-2016
        • Table MasterCard Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly MasterCard Bill Paid, 2007-2016
        • Table Visa Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly Visa Bill Paid, 2007-2016
      • Subprime borrowers no longer a factor
        • Table Credit Card Usage, by Credit Score, 2007-2015
        • Table Net Credit Limit Extensions and Reductions, by Credit Score, 2007-2015
    • Usage trends
      • Table Credit Card Usage Penetration, 2008-2014
      • Table Credit Card Usage, by Type, 2007-2016
      • Demographic trends
        • Table Credit Card Usage Penetration, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Credit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Credit Card Usage Penetration, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Credit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
      • 2007-2016 trends
        • Table Credit Card Usage, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
        • Table Credit Card Usage in Last 30 Days, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
      • 2010-2016 demographic trends
        • Table General-Purpose Card Usage in Last 30 Days, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
    • Usage frequency trends
      • Table Credit Card Monthly Use and Monthly Usage Frequency Share, 2007-2016
      • Table General-Purpose Credit Card Monthly Use and Monthly Usage Frequency Share, 2007-2016
      • Table Department Store Credit Card Use and Monthly Usage Frequency Share, 2007-2016
      • Demographic trends
        • Table General-Purpose Credit Card Use and Monthly Usage Frequency, by Age, 2010 vs. 2016
        • Table General-Purpose Credit Card Use and Monthly Usage Frequency, by HH Income, 2010 vs. 2016
    • Number of cards in wallet: trends over time
      • Table Percent of Adults Having General-Purpose Credit Cards and Share by Number of Cards, by Brand, 2007-2016
      • Table MasterCard and Visa Credit Card Usage Share, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
      • Table American Express and Discover Credit Card Usage Share, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
  • Consumer Debit and Prepaid Card Payments
    • Consumer general-purpose debit & prepaid card payment market size
      • Table Consumer General-Purpose Debit & Prepaid Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
      • Visa dominates
        • Table Consumer General-Purpose Debit & Prepaid Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
    • Debit card usage forecast
      • Table Active General-Purpose Debit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2007-2016
      • Table Active General-Purpose Debit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2016-2020
    • Debit card trends
      • A core payment tool for bills and non-bills
        • Table Consumer Debit Card Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
    • Usage trends
      • Table Debit Card Usage Penetration, 2008-2014
      • Table Debit Card Usage, by Type, 2007-2016
      • Demographic trends
        • Table Debit Card Usage Penetration, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Debit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Debit Card Usage Penetration, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Debit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
      • 2007-2016 trends
        • Table Debit Card Usage, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
        • Table Debit Card Usage in Last 30 Days, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
      • 2010-2016 demographic trends
        • Table Used Debit Card in Past 30 Days: ATM-Only and General-Purpose Debit Card Usage Share, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
      • Cash and purchase usage and usage frequency trends
        • Table MasterCard & Visa Debit Card Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days: Total Transactions, 2010-2016
        • Table MasterCard & Visa Debit Card Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days: Purchase Transactions, 2010-2016
        • Table MasterCard & Visa Debit Card Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days: Cash Transactions, 2010-2016
        • Table ATM-Only Debit Card Usage & Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days, 2010-2016
    • Prepaid card usage trends
      • 2010-2016 trends
        • Table Prepaid Card Usage, by Type and Brand, 2010-2016
        • Table Prepaid Card Usage, by Brand, 2010-2016
      • 2010-2016 demographic trends
        • Table Prepaid Card Use by Brand and Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
        • Table Prepaid Card Use by Brand and Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
  • ACH Payments
    • ACH payments market size
      • Payments value: 2012-2020
        • Table U.S. ACH Payments Value and Volume, 2012-2020
      • Credit vs. debit transfers
      • Network operator vs. on-us transactions
        • Table ACH Payment Value and Volume: Network, On-Us, Credit and Debit, 2012 vs. 2015
    • ACH consumer payment market size
      • Network ACH payments value and volume: 2012-2020
        • Table ACH Payments: Value and Volume, 2009-2016
      • Consumer ACH payments value and volume: 2012-2020
        • Table ACH Consumer Payments: Value and Volume, 2009-2016
      • Market size: Consumer ACH direct deposit payments
        • Table ACH Direct Deposit, Value and Volume, 2009-2016
      • Market size: Consumer ACH online banking bill payments
        • Table ACH Online Banking Bill Payment, Value and Volume, 2009-2016
      • Market size: Consumer ACH payments initiated online vs. telephone
        • Table ACH Telephone and Web Payment, Value and Volume, 2009-2016
    • Online banking bill payment usage growth trends
      • Table Consumer Online Banking Bill Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
    • Consumer bank account number payment usage growth trends
      • Table Consumer Bank Account Number Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
  • Check Payments
    • Check payments market size
      • Table Check Value and Volume: Checks Written, Converted to ACH and Payments, 2012 vs. 2015
      • Consumer check payments: Still broadly used but with low-and lesser-frequency
        • Table Consumer Check Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
    • check payments
      • Federal Reserve data sets the stage
      • Trended consumer survey analysis suggests steady, consistent decline
        • Table Percent of Bill Payers Who Use Checks: Always, Sometimes and Never, 2010-2016
      • Demographic analysis
        • Table Bill Payers Who Always Use Checks: Indexed Usage, by Demographic, 2016
  • Cash Payments
    • U.S. consumer cash payment value & volume: market size & forecast
      • Table U.S. Consumer Cash Payments Value and Volume, 2012-2020
    • Carrying and withdrawing cash
      • Cash in circulation: big bill boom
        • Table Currency in Circulation: Value and Value Share, by Denomination, 2007-2016
      • Carrying cash
      • Cash withdrawal amounts higher than credit card and debit card payment value
        • Table Number and Value of ATM Withdrawals at Depository Institutions, by Withdrawal Type, 2003-2015
    • In important ways, cash remains king
      • Table Consumer Cash Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
      • Cash takes a hit but remains resilient
      • Breadth of merchant use
      • Small value payments
    • The cash user
      • Cash less likely to be preferred payment instrument
      • Who loves cash?
      • Degree of using cash to pay for goods and services
        • Table Degree of Using Cash to Pay for Goods and Services, 2016
        • Table Degree of Using Cash to Pay for Goods and Services, by Demographic, 2016
      • Reasons for choosing cash over payment cards
        • Table Reasons for Choosing Cash over Payment Cards, 2016
        • Table Reasons for Choosing Cash over Payment Cards, by Demographic, 2016
        • Table Reasons for Choosing Cash over Payment Cards, by Frequency of Cash Use, 2016
      • Cash preferences: paying for purchases and bills
        • Table Degree of Preference for Paying with Cash, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
        • Table Degree of Preference for Using Cash to Pay Bills, by Demographic, 2016
      • Influence of cash preference on payment cards, by type
        • Table Relationship of Cash Preferences to Credit Card Usage, 2016
        • Table Relationship of Cash Preferences to Debit Card Purchase and Cash Usage, 2016
        • Table Relationship of Cash Preferences to Reloadable and Non-Reloadable Prepaid Card Usage, 2016
      • Influence of cash preference on banking relationship and creditworthiness
        • Table Relationship of Cash Preferences to Banking Relationship and Types of Loans Used, 2016
        • Table Relationship of Cash Preferences to Credit Score, 2016
  • Online and Mobile Payments
    • Remote payment growth rate twice the in-person payment rate
      • Table General-Purpose Card Payments Volume and Value: In-Person vs. Remote, 2012-2015
    • Payment method usage trends
      • Online purchasing usage penetration growth slowing down
        • Table Payment Methods: Online vs. Phone or Mail, 2014-2016
      • Online and mobile purchase frequency trends
        • Table Purchases Made Last 30 Days: Online Purchase Frequency and Mobile Purchases, 2010-2016
      • Credit cards the online payment method of choice; PayPal firmly established
        • Table Online Payment Methods Used, by Type, 2014-2016
      • Phone/mail payment usage methods see check declines
        • Table Phone/Mail Payment Methods Used, by Type, 2014-2016
    • Bill payment trends
      • Bill payment methods used: trends over time
        • Table Bill Payment Methods Used, 2010-2016
      • Form of payment used to pay bills: trends over time
        • Table Bill Payments: Form of Payment Always Used, 2010-2016
        • Table Bill Payments: Form of Payment Sometimes Used, 2010-2016
        • Table Bill Payments: Form of Payment Never Used, 2010-2016
    • Mobile wallets
      • Mobile wallet funding method
      • PayPal: funding method disruptor
      • Mobile wallets also potential funding method disruptors
        • Table Mobile Wallet Funding Method and Preferred Funding Method, 2016
      • Mobile wallet payment entry method
        • Table Mobile Phone Purchasing: Payment Entry Method and Preferred Method, 2016
  • P2P and money transfer
    • P2P and money transfer usage methods: trends over time
      • Table Sending/Receiving Money: Methods Used, 2010-2016
      • Bank-driven P2P usage and interest
        • Table Bank Account with P2P Functionality: Usage and Interest, by Demographic, 2016
      • Instant P2P payment usage and interest
        • Table Instant Electronic P2P Usage and Interest, by Demographic, 2016
  • Appendix
    • Consumer survey methodology
    • Market size and forecast methodology
      • Consumer payments market size and forecast
    • Population estimates
    • Table indexes
    • Key sources
    • Terms and definitions
      • Table Report Abbreviations
      • Table Market-Based PCE, 2007-2016
    • Tables
      • Table Consumer Payment Instruments: Monthly Usage Penetration, 2010-2014
      • Table Consumer Payments Made in Typical Month, by Payment Instrument, 2010-2014

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