Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana



As we expected, Botswana recorded a real GDP growth rate of 2.7% in 2023 ‒ down from 5.5% in 2022. Poor conditions in the global diamond industry weighed on the landlocked economy, with activity among diamond traders registering deep contractions. Despite the mining & quarrying sector rebounding in Q4 2023 from an annual contraction in the preceding quarter, non-mining activity slowed. Although we think diamond prices will recover slowly this year, the economy is likely to benefit more from increased development spending as outlined in the latest 'stimulus' budget. We now predict real GDP growth will build up to 3.0% in 2024 ‒ marginally higher than our previous forecast of 2.9%.


Botswana: It's time to sue for divorce, but who keeps the diamond ring?
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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