Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt

Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt

A cabinet statement made by Minister of Planning Hala Al-Said suggests that the economy may be much weaker than we are being led to believe. According to Al-Said, real GDP growth came in just above 5.0% y-o-y in Q1 2022, while the economy is expected to expand by around 6.2% y-o-y in the 2021/22 fiscal year (FY, ending in June). While these figures look impressive in annual terms, a closer look at the available data suggests that the economy is in recessionary territory. Given the strong economic growth recorded in Q3 2021 (+9.8% y-o-y) and Q4 2021 (+8.2% y-o-y), real GDP growth would have to contract by around 0.9% q-o-q in Q1 2022 and a further 1.8% q-o-q in Q2 2022 to reach the annual GDP figures quoted by Al-Said. We have therefore cut our real GDP growth forecast by 3.3 ppts to 1.3% this year, from 4.6% in the April forecast round.

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