Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Egypt
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food prices is being felt and with global food prices projected to rise into Q2, Egyptians will not be able to escape further inflationary pressures. This will weigh on consumer demand, which has proven to be a key driver of economic growth over the past two years. Last month's purchasing managers' index (PMI) − which recorded its sharpest contraction since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020 − highlights the serious impact of mounting inflationary pressures on non-oil sector demand. Overall, we have left our real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 4.6% this year, after it was revised down by 0.3 ppts in the March forecast round to reflect the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on the economy.
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