Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom

The UK growth outlook has been damaged by higher US tariffs, which will weaken demand from the US and rest of the world for UK exports. A prolonged period of trade policy uncertainty will weigh on capital spending. Though a stronger-than-expected Q1 means our 2025 UK GDP growth forecast is unchanged at 1%, we've cut our 2026 forecast by 0.6ppts to 0.9%.


Italy: Tariff threats and uncertainty cloud the outlook
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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