Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania
Flash estimates indicated Romania's Q1 2022 GDP grew 5.2% q/q, significantly better than expected. However, high-frequency data do not point to a sharp acceleration in GDP growth, with industry advancing only 2.5% q/q and retail sales growing by 0.8%. That said, economic confidence increased in Q1 to 103.0 from 102.3 in Q4 2021, despite the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and the resulting jump in inflationary pressure. Given stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 5% from 3% last month, while growth in 2023 has been trimmed by 0.3ppts, to 3.8%.
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