Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania

Flash estimates indicated Romania's Q1 2022 GDP grew 5.2% q/q, significantly better than expected. However, high-frequency data do not point to a sharp acceleration in GDP growth, with industry advancing only 2.5% q/q and retail sales growing by 0.8%. That said, economic confidence increased in Q1 to 103.0 from 102.3 in Q4 2021, despite the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and the resulting jump in inflationary pressure. Given stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 5% from 3% last month, while growth in 2023 has been trimmed by 0.3ppts, to 3.8%.


Romania: Q1 2022 GDP growth significantly exceeds expectations
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Medium-term outlook
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings.
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Politics and policy

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