Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We've lowered our GDP forecasts for Germany by 0.1ppt to a 0.1% contraction this year and by 0.2ppts to 0.5% growth in 2025. The rebound in industrial production in August limits the risks of a more material drop in Q3 GDP. But incoming capital goods and construction orders underscore the continued drag from past monetary policy tightening. Meanwhile, the drop in employment in August highlights the softening labour market and the risks related to the consumer recovery.
- Germany: August's bounce in industrial output isn't a turning point
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risks
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy
- Politics
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