Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany

German industry and construction had a better-than-expected start to the year. And while we expect to see some reversal in that strength, the economy is likely to avoid a technical recession, leading us to raise our 2023 GDP forecast to 0.3% growth (up 0.4ppts from last month). That said, we now assume that recent market turbulence will add to the monetary policy headwinds later this year and next. We have therefore cut our 2024 forecast by 0.5ppts, to 0.8% growth.

Germany: Tighter lending conditions to weigh on 2024 growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade

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