Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador

We've adjusted our forecasts for Ecuador's GDP growth by lowering the 2024 projection by 0.1ppt to 0.9% and raising the estimate for 2025 by 0.4ppts to 1.4%. GDP likely contracted in Q1 amid security crisis, electricity shortages causing economic shutdowns, and slower domestic demand. The local VAT rate increase and prolonged high interest rates in the US will limit household spending and investment. Additionally, the oil ban in Yasuní Park from Q4 2024 onward will affect oil exports. These effects will be partially offset by non-oil exports. Our growth forecasts are above consensus for 2024 and below for 2025.

Ecuador: Weak growth and Fiscal consolidation ahead
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Economic development and Structure of the economy
Policy and Politics

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