Category: Energy
Energy market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati We expect Kiribati's GDP will grow by a modest 0.9% next year, following strong growth of 3% in 2024. The positive growth effects of a 38% rise in public sector wages in 2024 is expected to taper off next year. Kiribati's economic performance con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger The 2,000-km Niger-Benin Oil Export Pipeline is anticipated to transform Niger into a significant regional oil producer. Boasting a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipel ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone Weak economic institutions, persistent cost-of-living crises, and high susceptibility to external shocks hinder sustained economic growth in Sierra Leone. Nevertheless, easing inflation should bolster government spending and private sector activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica We've nudged up our forecast for Costa Rica's GDP growth this year by 0.2ppts to 3.7% as investment figures surprised to the upside in Q2 2024. However, consumption has slowed down amid lower growth in real incomes and higher unemployment. M ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iran
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iran Despite a significant increase in crude oil output in 2023, Iran’s GDP growth is expected to slow in 2024 due to reduced oil exports and fixed investment. Growth is projected to slow in FY2024 to 2.9%, hindered by tighter sanctions affecting oil productio ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kuwait
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kuwait Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, increasing by 0.3%, picking up to 1.9% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - United Arab Emirates
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - United Arab Emirates Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2024, increasing by 4.1%, picking up to 5.8% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Saudi Arabia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Saudi Arabia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, falling by 0.3%, picking up to 9.7% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Greece
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Greece Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2024, increasing by 4%, before easing to 3.8% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We have revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Kyrgyzstan to 4% y/y, 0.2ppts down from the previous forecast. We expect that growth will drop to 3.2% y/y in 2025, but will then hover around 4% in the medium to long term. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Albania
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Albania We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Albania by 1.1ppts to 2.9%. The economy has proven resilient to the inflation shock and tighter monetary policy, with a strong finish to 2023 providing a healthy carryover for growth in 2024. Growth will ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Turkmenistan by 0.1ppt to 3.1% y/y in 2023 and by 0.5ppts to 2.7% y/y in 2024, as we expect energy prices to rise due to an intensifying Israel-Hamas conflict. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA - Saudi Arabia
Analysis by Region - MENA - Saudi Arabia We expect the Saudi Arabian economy to grow by 1.1% this year, down from last month's forecast due to the additional cut to oil production. Driven mostly by a 5.4% y/y rise in non-oil activities last year, growth expanded by 3.9% y/y in Q1 2023. Oil activ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei After contracting 1.6% in 2022, Brunei's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 due to higher investment spending, bringing GDP back to its pre-pandemic level. Investment will focus on the expansion of petrochemical plants, r ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India We maintain our below-consensus forecast for Indian economic growth of 4.8% in 2023. But we have revised our 2024 outlook down, to 6.3%, due to recent banking sector turmoil and the uncertainty that will have a lagged impact on the global economy. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany German industry and construction had a better-than-expected start to the year. And while we expect to see some reversal in that strength, the economy is likely to avoid a technical recession, leading us to raise our 2023 GDP forecast to 0.3% growth (up 0. ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Crude oil prices surged on news that OPEC+ would cut production by over 1mn b/d beginning in May. The supply response from elsewhere will be limited and not enough to offset the reduction. At the same time, our demand outlook is broadl ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We have raised our 2023 eurozone GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 0.8%. However, we've cut our outlook for 2024 by 0.3ppts to 1% growth as a consequence of the lagged impact from tighter financing conditions. Our base case remains that the eurozone ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana The first quarter has come and gone, and the Ghanaian government failed to present its case to the Executive Board of the IMF. Accra aimed to wrap up bilateral debt restructuring before the end of Q1 to provide the multilateral organisation with the nece ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria The second leg of Nigeria's general elections took place on March 18, with 28 of the country's 36 states voting for their governor and state representatives. There were reports of violence, voter intimidation, and attacks on polling stations, w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq Despite a decrease in oil output in Q1 2023, we've maintained our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%. This is because Iraq is seeking to expand its oil opportunities through offering production and exploration licenses in H2 2023. So far, it's kept its ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria
Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria Nigeria has regained the title of 'Africa's largest oil producer' thanks to recovering oil production towards the end of last year. Output rose by 7.0% m/m to an average of 1.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in December due to successful efforts to rep ... Read More
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