Category: Banking & Financial Services
Banking & Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s new finance minister, Cassiel Ato Forson, will present the 2025 Budget to Parliament on March 11. This will mark the first full-year budget under the new Mahama administration, following a GHȼ68bn provisional budget approved in January for first-quarter government spending. In February, an I ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week. Though the initial duties on March 4 were eventually watered down, tariff rates on Canada and Mexico have still ended up at double-digit levels, a substantial increase from before. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Our forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth in 2025 has been upgraded to 4.4%, up from the previous estimate of 3.9%. This revision follows OPEC+’s decision to increase supply from Q2 onwards, earlier than both our and market expectations of Q3 2025. However, non-oil activities will remain the p ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 4.7%, driven entirely by the latest OPEC+ agreement to gradually unwind production cuts starting in Q2. Although oil prices remain under pressure, the increase in production will support growth in the oil sector, particularly as the UAE continue ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
The ongoing war in Sudan is forecast to trigger the country's eighth consecutive annual economic contraction this year. After nearly two years of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudan's main paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the chances of an end to the war ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China
Recent policy headlines suggest strong top-down guidance towards further coordinated easing between various economic agents this year. This, alongside hints that authorities could shift towards a more supportive stance on private entrepreneurship, have rallied onshore markets, despite prior rounds ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Cyprus by 0.3ppts to 2.4%, though this is still one of the fastest rates of expansion we project in the Eurozone this year. The downgrade was prompted by a soft end to 2024 and the likely start of a trade war with the US. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
On preliminary figures from the High Planning Commission, real GDP growth in Morocco was 3.1% in 2024, stronger than our previous estimate of 2.7%. The available numbers show real GDP growth of 4.3% y/y in Q3 2024, driven by persistently strong growth in mining & quarrying and accommodation & ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
We've revised our forecast for Luxembourg in 2025 and now expect the economy to grow by 2.2%, 0.3ppts lower than previously. This reflects the negative economic impact we expect from US tariffs and the repercussions in the Eurozone. We expect growth in business investment to be substantially low ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh
We have cut our real GDP growth forecast for Bangladesh to 4.2% during FY2024/25 (ending in June 2025), down from 5.5% previously. This is the same pace as last year, as revised data for FY2023/24 show the economy only expanded by 4.2%. The new fiscal year has started on a much weaker footing due to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe’s economy is expected to accelerate this year after the marked slowdown in 2024. Our economic growth forecast of 2.8% this year is below consensus, as we think last year's drought will continue to stifle electricity generation. Meanwhile, the ZiG has stabilised somewhat after last year’ ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
This week's data failed to offer the sort of upside surprises in UK inflation and pay growth that would likely be required for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to change course from its gradual approach to loosening policy. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Costa Rica
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Costa Rica by 0.4ppts to 3.6%. We expect private consumption will slow down due to the return of inflation to the lower bound of the central bank's target range, higher unemployment, and lower consumer confidence. Rate cuts in 2024 should support ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
We expect much of the Ivorian economy’s momentum to persist throughout 2025 due to robust secondary and tertiary sector activity. Increased oil and gas output and strong gold production will support industry growth this year. Concurrently, sustained expansions in trade and the financial and ICT indu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, down from an estimated 2.7% expansion last year. The moderation in the January PMI and capacity utilisation rates suggests industry is not out of the woods despite a surge in output in December 2024. We don't think ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Ethiopia has maintained its fiscal consolidation and policy reform path, performing well in terms of meeting its IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) targets in H2 2024. The ECF disbursals and World Bank facilities alleviated acute FX pressures in 2024, while strong coffee export receipts provided fur ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
Economic growth surpassed our expectations in 2024, but we still anticipate the Angolan economy to cool in 2025 due to a slower expansion in the oil sector. Elevated inflation, fiscal consolidation efforts, and continued dry weather conditions thwart the potential for higher real GDP growth. We fore ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina are unchanged at a below-consensus 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The strong recovery in Q3 2024 and resilience in Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Our cross-country modelling suggests that household savings-to-GDP ratios in EMs are likely to increase in the medium term, based on our forecasts projecting rising real disposable incomes across EMs. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
We forecast Malawi's real GDP growth to recover to 2.6% this year from 1.7% in 2024. The improved forecast is based on an improved outlook for rainfall compared with last year's severe drought and the expected reopening of a uranium mine in September. However, the economy continues to be pla ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia's economic growth slowed at the back end of last year because of cuts in diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
We think growth this year will likely fall back to a more moderate pace, after GDP growth in 2024 had likely continued the quick 3% pace from 2023. Long-term growth will stay weak due to sanctions and soft consumer demand from the country's main trading partner, China. The surge in ammunition an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Lesotho's economy recovered in Q3 2024, expanding by 3.6% y/y compared with 0.7% y/y in the previous quarter. The services and industrial sectors posted notable growth, especially in retail, construction, and water & electricity subsectors. We expect economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.4ppts to 2.3%. While we estimate a modest pick-up in activity in the final quarter of 2024 ended the year-long recession, the momentum at the turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the abo ... Read More
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