Category: Banking & Financial Services
Banking & Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We left our near-term forecasts unchanged this month at 0% GDP growth for this year and 0.9% in 2026, with inflation at 2.1% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. This stability reflects the positive effects of the initial impact from Germany's fiscal sea change offset by the weaker and more uncertain globa ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
We've cut our GDP forecasts for Canada by 0.4ppts to 0.7% growth in 2025 and by 0.1ppt to a 0.2% contraction in 2026. Despite lower US-Canada tariffs, we expect Canada's recession will be deeper due to weaker global demand from higher US tariffs on the rest of the world. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We have kept our GDP growth forecast for Peru unchanged at 2.6% for 2025 but cut our projection for 2026 by 0.3ppts to 2.6%. Still, we recognise downside risks to our outlook. On the domestic front, renewed social unrest triggered by rising insecurity led to strikes in the capital city during April. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
We have cut our growth outlook for the Austrian economy by 0.1ppt and anticipate another contraction of 0.2% this year. We believe the economy will struggle to grow in the first half of the year, gradually improving towards year-end. US tariffs on EU goods, particularly the 25% tariffs on cars, pose ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
Following US President Trump's tariff announcements in early April, we've downgraded our GDP growth forecast for Thailand to 2.3% in 2025, from 2.5% previously, and 2.4% in 2026, from 2.7%. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
We’ve lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the US by 0.8ppts to 1.2%. However, this paints a brighter picture of how the economy will fare this year because this figure is flattered by a favorable base effect. We forecast average annualized GDP growth this year will be 0.5%, leaving the economy ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Italy slightly to 0.5% and lowered our projection for 2026 by 0.2ppts to 0.5%. Momentum likely improved in Q1, but heightened trade uncertainty will make businesses reluctant to invest, so we envisage slower growth further ahead. We think the US will m ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
The UK growth outlook has been damaged by higher US tariffs, which will weaken demand from the US and rest of the world for UK exports. A prolonged period of trade policy uncertainty will weigh on capital spending. Though a stronger-than-expected Q1 means our 2025 UK GDP growth forecast is unchanged ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
We have revised down our growth forecast for this year and next due to trade policy uncertainty and lower global demand. We still expect a domestic demand-led pick-up in activity, with the key downside risk being higher trade protectionism. The announced increase in defence spending won't have a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Mexico by 0.7ppts from last month to near 0%, slightly below consensus of 0.3%. The economy edged closer to a technical recession in Q1 and the effects of the US trade war are still uncertain. We expect Mexico to experience a shallow V-shaped recession an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia recorded robust economic growth last year despite a slump in diamond output and severe drought conditions. Low interest rates and reduced fiscal spending ‒ enabled by improved tax collection ‒ boosted personal consumption. The external outlook has weakened since our previous forecast due to ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Though President Trump temporarily suspended his administration's reciprocal tariffs on most countries this week, higher tariffs on China leave the overall effective tariff rate little changed from last week. And with trade policy uncertainty set to remain very high, we still plan to cut our nea ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
We think import price rises and import compression by the US are only the start of a negative chain reaction in global trade. As countries export less to the US, they will most certainly also import less from other trading partners as their income falls, magnifying the tariff shock. We find this ind ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The Trump administration paused for 90-days the tariffs announced April for most countries. However, China wasn't spared as tariffs on Chinese imports were significantly increased. China has aggressively retaliated. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Considering South Africa's uncertain political environment combined with the backdrop of building global headwinds, our outlook for the South African economy has deteriorated. We have consequently made several changes to our baseline forecast to reflect increased stagflation risks. Real GDP grow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
New shockwaves hit the global economy on April 2: President Donald Trump announced much higher than expected and wide-ranging reciprocal tariffs, intensifying worldwide trade and economic uncertainty. Egypt escaped relatively unscathed, with only a 10% baseline tariff on goods exported to the US. Ho ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s economic growth rate slowed to 3.6% year-over-year (y/y) in Q4 2024, resulting in a still-impressive expansion of 5.8% for the year. Although high-frequency data released in Q1 2025 suggests that price pressures remain a key drag on private sector activity, we believe prospects of price stab ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
We forecast the economy to expand by 3.9% in 2025, driven by further expected gains in gold and coffee prices – both vital commodities to the domestic economy. Gold prices have already surged by 38.2% y/y in Q1, fuelled by heightened geopolitical tensions. Arabica coffee prices rose by 88.4% y/y ove ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
Benin’s economy has been on a strong growth trajectory, with our estimates suggesting growth reached 6.5% last year. Infrastructure investment, industrialisation, and agricultural development have sustained high growth since the start of the decade. Investor confidence is increasing, as evidenced by ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
We forecast the Comorian economy to grow by 4.1% in 2025, continuing its decent economic performance over the past few years. Short- to medium-term economic growth is anticipated to be primarily driven by real private consumption. We have raised our forecast for average real GDP growth between 2026 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.1ppt to 2%. Positive momentum in activity continued in January, suggesting domestic demand was strong. However, heightened global economic uncertainty due to US tariffs and instability in the Middle East could cool investment. This comes ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
We forecast Belgium's economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2026 as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Qatar by 0.5ppts to 2.6% and continue to expect growth will pick up to 5% in 2026. The upgrade to our near-term outlook reflects better-than-expected growth at the end of 2024 and positive activity indicators since the start of this year. Meanwhile, bu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Libya's oil output reached a decade-high of 1.31 million bpd in December 2024. That said, international oil prices are projected to be relatively flat over the next three years, leaving the government with limited growth prospects for oil-related revenues. However, the country has attracted inte ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Iraq to 1.2% to reflect the recalibration of our measurement scopes for Iraq's non-oil activities to better align with official data releases. Our upward revision was also driven by our better expectations for this year's oil production due t ... Read More
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