Network Transmission Market Analysis and Equipment Forecast: ROADMS, DWDM, Routers and Switches and the Impact of Net Neutrality
This report is focused on forecasting demand for specific types of carrier-classnetwork transmission equipment: ROADMS, DWDM, Routers and Switches. To make that forecast it will investigate the demand parameters of this situation, which are primarily traffic forecasts. After reviewing the regulatory climate (Net Neutrality), and the market demand, the Report will look at capital expenditure forecasts as a surrogate for Supply. Then it will provide forecasts for various classes (ROADMs, DWDM, Routers and Switches) of optical network equipment in this environment.
The report will provide:
- Equipment descriptions and sales forecasts for ROADMS, DWDM, Routers, and Switches through 2020.
- A discussion of Net Neutrality, the players, the issues, and its impact on equipment sales.
- Traffic forecasts for the North American Internet through 2020
- N.A. and World forecasts for Mobile Traffic, Advanced Access Architecture lines(FiOS, U-Verse, Google), High-Speed lines (XDSL and cable modems) and International Traffic (North America only) through 2020.
- Capital Expenditure forecasts for the major telecom companies through 2020.
- Listing of Major Vendors in the Transmission Equipment space.
In addition to the changes in traffic sources, patterns, and absolute quantity, there are many changes thatThe general rule of large numbers indicates that it gets harder and harder to continue growing at the same growth rate (much more so at an increasing growth rate), simply because of the ever-increasing size of the base. Therefore, as the reader looks at these charts, he will (in most cases) see continued growth, just at diminished rates.
Internet traffic is beginning to slow (in growth rate,) tending toward the low teens, for reasons to be explored in the opening chapters on drivers. With the lower growth rate of traffic, one will see lower investment growth following in transmission equipment, as the market will remain cautious after the rather recent bitter experiences. In addition, as the Report also shows that the specter of Net Neutrality hangs over the market, with the doubt it is creating causing even more caution as to investment and purchases.
This report will discuss the very current topic of Network Neutrality, which is much in the headlines as this is being written, and its forecasted impact on network equipment sales.
This Report will then examine traffic on the network and, through analysis, show that traffic from four major sources (AAA lines, H-H lines, Mobile lines and International) is responsible for the vast preponderance of traffic and traffic growth. Forecasts will then be provided (thru 2020) for these classes of traffic and for the Internet as a whole.
Based on the information from the traffic forecasts, the uncertainty from regulation (Net Neutrality) and the capital investment plans and forecasts, the Report will then provide equipment sales forecasts (units and dollars) for ROADMs, DWDM, Routers, and Switches (all carrier class) thru 2020 for North America and for the World. Detailed descriptions of each type of equipment being forecast is also provided.